流域水资源脆弱性评价与适应性治理研究框架

    Research framework of basin water resources vulnerability evaluation and adaptability management

    • 摘要: 针对流域水资源脆弱性与适应性问题,提出了脆弱性分析与适应性治理研究框架,包括水资源脆弱性的影响因素分析,面向治理决策的水资源脆弱性评价指标体系构建,基于粗集-BP神经网络模型进行水资源脆弱性评价。分析了流域水资源脆弱性的原因和产生机理,针对不同脆弱性机理拟定了适应性治理组合方案。最后运用奈特不确定性REU模型通过概率分布函数和效用函数的二次期望求解,对拟定的备选治理方案进行了决策选择。所提出的研究框架为流域水资源脆弱性评价与适应性治理研究奠定了基础。

       

      Abstract: Aiming to the issues of basin water resources vulnerability and adaptability, we put forward the research framework of water resources vulnerability analysis and adaptive governance, including influential factor analysis of water resources vulnerability, governance decision-making oriented vulnerability evaluation index system of water resource, rough set-BP neural network model based evaluation of water resources vulnerability. Also we analyze the causes and mechanism of basin water resources vulnerability and draw up adaptability governance schemes set accordingly. At last, we calculate the secondary expectation value through the probability distribution function and utility function by using Knightian uncertainty REU model, which is helpful to the decision making among governance alternative. The suggested research framework laid a foundation for basin water resources vulnerability evaluation and adaptability governance research.

       

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