Abstract:
Aiming to the issues of basin water resources vulnerability and adaptability, we put forward the research framework of water resources vulnerability analysis and adaptive governance, including influential factor analysis of water resources vulnerability, governance decision-making oriented vulnerability evaluation index system of water resource, rough set-BP neural network model based evaluation of water resources vulnerability. Also we analyze the causes and mechanism of basin water resources vulnerability and draw up adaptability governance schemes set accordingly. At last, we calculate the secondary expectation value through the probability distribution function and utility function by using Knightian uncertainty REU model, which is helpful to the decision making among governance alternative. The suggested research framework laid a foundation for basin water resources vulnerability evaluation and adaptability governance research.