浏阳河流域降水时空演变规律分析

    Analysis on spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of precipitation in Liuyang River basin

    • 摘要: 通过线性回归、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验、累积距平联合滑动t检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了浏阳河流域1969~2013年的年、汛期和非汛期降水的演变规律。结果表明:① 45 a来,年、汛期降水量呈非显著性下降趋势,非汛期降水量呈非显著性上升趋势。② 年降水量的空间分布存在不均衡性,降水量总体从东北部向西南部逐渐减少。③ 年、汛期降水量均在1992年发生显著性均值突变,非汛期降水量突变不显著。④ 年降水量均存在27 a左右主周期,汛期和非汛期降水量在时间尺度上的相位变化与年降水大体一致。研究结果可为浏阳河流域气候分析和气候预测提供参考。

       

      Abstract: By using linear regression, moving average, Mann-Kendall test ,accumulative anomaly combined moving t test, Morlet wavelet analysis method, et al., the annual, flood seasonal and non-flood seasonal evolution characteristics of precipitation during 1969~2013 in Liuyang River basin were analyzed. The results indicated that: ①The annual and flood seasonal precipitation presented a nonsignificant decreasing trend and the non-flood seasonal precipitation presented a nonsignificant increasing trend during the past 45 years; ②There was an irregular spatial distribution of mean annual precipitation, which showed a decreasing trend from northeast to southwest; ③An abrupt change of the annual and flood seasonal precipitation occurred in 1992, and the abrupt change of non-flood seasonal precipitation was not significant; ④Annual precipitation had the main oscillation cycles of 27 years in common,and the phase change of precipitation in flood season and non-flood season were essentially consistent with those in annual on the time scale. The research results can provide reference for climate analysis and future weather forecasting in Liuyang River basin.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回