有效降雨最优统计时段尺度研究——以河北省河间市为例

    Study on optimal statistical time scale of effective precipitation——case of Hejian City, Hebei Province

    • 摘要: 准确评价有效降雨量对农业生产规划具有重要意义。时段内腾发量与降雨量比较法确定有效降雨量在实践中是一种计算简便、通用性强的评价方法,其中统计时段尺度参数的合理选取是应用该方法的关键。以河北省黑龙港地区河间市为例,基于有效降雨量和农业灌溉量之间存在互逆相关关系的原理,开展了2011~2015年不同统计时段尺度有效降雨量与农灌开采量之间的非线性回归分析,并通过拟合优度变化规律的分析,得出了统计时段尺度的优选值域范围和最优推荐值。研究结果表明,有效降雨量与农灌开采量的相关关系可采用幂函数来拟合,7~12 d为统计时段尺度的较优取值区间,可决系数达到0.7以上,10 d(旬)尺度为最优推荐值,可决系数约为0.9。研究过程中利用高分遥感影像解译数据对河间市主要作物的统计种植面积数据进行了校核,并采用“以电折水”的方式对该市农灌开采量进行评估,有效提高了研究成果的可靠性。

       

      Abstract: It is of great significance to assess the effective precipitation for agricultural production planning. The comparison between evapotranspiration and precipitation in a certain period to determine the effective precipitation is a simple and universal assessment method in practice, the reasonable statistical time scale parameters is the key to its application. Taking Hejian City, Hebei Province as a case, we conducted the non-linear regression analysis of the effective precipitation and agricultural irrigation in different statistical time scales from 2011 to 2015 based on the reciprocal relationship between the effective precipitation and agricultural irrigation. And through the analysis of the goodness of fit, the optimal range and optimal value of the statistical time scale are obtained. The results manifest that the relationship between the effective precipitation and agricultural irrigation is in power function as the optimal fitting; 7~12 days statistical time scale is the better fitting range and the coefficients of determination are above 0.7; statistical time scale under 10-days reaches the best fitting effect, and the coefficient of determination is about 0.9. In the study process, the high-resolution remote sensing image interpretation data was used to check the statistical data of the staple crop area and the "electric-water conversion" method was used to evaluate agricultural irrigation volume of Hejian City, which effectively improved the reliability of the research.

       

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