滇中地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征分析

    Temporal and spatial variation analysis of extreme precipitationat central area of Yunnan Province

    • 摘要: 近年来,极端降水事件频发,对社会经济发展带来一定损失。为探讨云南省滇中地区极端降水事件的变化规律,根据1964~2013年滇中地区49个气象站点逐日的降水数据,采用M-K秩次检验方法,结合线性趋势和5 a滑动平均法,分析滇中地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征。结果表明:① 在时间尺度上,强降水日数和最多连续雨日天数呈显著减少趋势,普通日降水强度呈弱减少趋势,最多连续无雨日天数呈显著上升趋势,极端降水事件突变多发生在2002~2008年间;② 在空间尺度上,普通日降水强度整体上表现出中部高,东北和西北部低的趋势;强降水日数和最多连续无雨日天数整体呈现出中西部低,东南和西北部高的趋势,并出现了明显的低值区,而最多连续雨日天数基本呈现出相反的空间分布特征;③ 在空间变化趋势方面,近50 a滇中地区降水呈减少的趋势,中东部地区降水减少趋势最为显著,且普通日降水强度呈显著减少趋势,而西南部最多连续无雨日数则呈现显著上升趋势。由分析结果可知,滇中地区干旱趋势明显加剧,尤其是中东部。

       

      Abstract: In recent years, the extreme precipitation events occur frequently and bring about some loss to the society and economy. To explore the variation law of the extreme precipitation events in the central area of Yunnan Province, based on the daily precipitation date at 49 stations in this area from 1964 to 2013, temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the central area of Yunnan Province were analyzed by using Mann-kendall rank test, regression analysis and the five year moving average analysis. The results showed: ① On the time scale, R10 and CWD showed a significant decreasing trend, the SDII showed a weak decrease trend, and CDD showed a significant upward trend, further the mutation year of the extreme precipitation events mostly occurred in the period from 2002 to 2008; ② At the spatial scale, SDII showed the trend of higher in central, lower in the northeast and northwest, R10 and CWD, with an obvious low value area, showed a trend of lower in central and west, higher in the southeast and northwest, but CWD showed opposite spatial distribution characteristics;③ In terms of spatial variation, the precipitation in Central Yunnan Province in recent 50 years showed decreasing trend, with most significant downward in the central and east areas, and also SDII showed a significant reduction trend in this area, while CDD increased significantly in the southwest area. Thus, it can be drawn that the drought trend had obviously increased in Central Yunnan Province, especially in the central and east areas.

       

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