Abstract:
Climate change is gradually changing the global water cycle status, and will have a significant impact on the hydrology and water resources utilization. Based on the predictions to climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the recent and long term climate change scenarios were selected and the daily flow process of main stations on the Jinsha River main stream was simulated to analyze the impacts of climate change on hydrological drought of Shigu cross-section and water intake of Central-Yunnan Water Diversion Project. The results show that affected by the probable future climate change, the intensity and frequency of hydrological drought at Shigu cross-section will both increase, and the long-term uncertainty is higher than short-term uncertainty. The number of days unable to intake water increases as well as the transferable water quantity of Central-Yunnan Water Diversion Project, but generally speaking, climate change has small adverse influence on the project.