南水北调中线征迁安置风险后果模糊综合评价

    Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on risk consequences in land requisitionand resettlement of Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion

    • 摘要: 针对南水北调中线工程征迁安置风险后果种类多,定性与定量指标的严重程度较为模糊导致综合评价难以实现的问题,在构建征迁安置风险后果评价指标体系的基础上,采用模糊隶属函数和专家自信度打分逐级估量法分别分析定量指标和定性指标的隶属度,结合风险等级标准构建模糊评价模型,用于评价各类后果的风险水平及综合风险水平。将该方法应用于南水北调中线工程潮河段征迁安置风险后果评价,理论分析结果与工程实际情况相一致,验证了该方法具有较好的科学性与实用性。可为类似大型线型工程征迁安置风险分析提供参考和依据。

       

      Abstract: It is difficult to comprehensively evaluate the effect of land requisition and resettlement of Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion due to various associated risk consequences and rather vague risk grading standards of qualitative and quantitative indexes. A risk consequence evaluation index system was constructed and the membership degrees of quantitative and qualitative indexes were confirmed by fuzzy membership function and step by step estimation method based on expert scoring, and with risk grade standard, a fuzzy evaluation model was built to. to evaluate the risk level of various consequences and comprehensive risk levels. The model was used to evaluate the consequence risks of land requisition and resettlement of the Caohe River reach of Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion.The evaluation result is consistent with engineering practice and the model is verified scientific and practical.

       

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