山洪灾害风险分区划分模型构建与应用

    Construction and application of flood-risk zoning model

    • 摘要: 山洪灾害风险分区可以为山洪灾害风险防治和管理提供决策支持。从触发因子、下垫面孕灾因子、承灾体因子3个层次选取11个山洪致灾因子,用于划分山洪灾害风险分区。前期收集11个致灾因子的离散数据,利用克里金插值生成栅格数据,采用层次分析法确定各因子的向量权重,构建了山洪灾害风险等级评估模型,用于划分山洪灾害风险分区。选定宁波市作为研究区,采用以上方法划分风险分区,其中,高风险区域为宁海山区片,中风险区域有象山港南片、象山港北片及四明山区片,低风险区域有奉化山区片和姚江北部山区片。结合宁波市历史山洪灾害调查资料及风险等级成果,统计发现落在中高风险区的历史灾害点占比为98%,表明模型构建方法及风险分区划分合理,对山洪灾害风险管理具有指导意义。

       

      Abstract: The flood-risk zoning provides decision support for the flood disaster prevention and management. In this paper, 11 flood disaster-causing factors were selected from triggering factors, underlying surfaces and hazard-affected bodies to divide hazardous areas. According to the discrete data of 11 flood disaster-causing factors in the earlier work, the Kriging theory was used to generate the raster data and AHP was used to determine the weight of each factor. Then, we established the model of flood-risk level assessment to divide hazardous areas. In this paper, we analyzed the flood-risk zoning in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province. The results show that the Ninghai mountainous areas are high-risk areas. The middle-risk areas are in Siming Mountain, the southern and northern part of Xiangshangang. The low-risk areas are in Fenghua Mountain and the southern part of Yaojiang. Combining the flood disaster investigation data and the results from flood-risk zoning, it is found that historical disaster points located in the middle-high risk areas account for 98%, indicating that the method and the flood-risk zoning model are reasonable and can provide references for flood disaster management.

       

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