基于洪水过程的山区小流域洪水预警研究:以四川省白沙河流域为例

    Study on flood warning in small watershed of mountain area based on flood process: a case study in Baisha River Basin, Sichuan Province

    • 摘要: 受地形地质条件复杂和局部气象条件多变的影响,山区小流域在经历了短历时强降雨后,常会诱发突发性洪水,加上山区水文基础资料缺乏,使得洪水预警指标难以确定。通过构建分布式水文模型,基于不同重现期降雨量,考虑土壤含水量变化对洪水过程的影响,提出了一种适用于无资料地区的临界雨量确定方法,并将该方法应用于四川省白沙河流域实际研究。结果表明:土壤含水量对洪水起涨过程具有明显的影响,在100 a一遇(374.27 mm)、50 a一遇(330.01 mm)、20 a一遇(270.67 mm)、10 a一遇(224.84 mm)4种设计暴雨情景下,土壤饱和条件下到达警戒流量时间比土壤最干燥条件下分别提前了0.41,0.35,0.55,0.63 h;临界雨量在土壤饱和条件下为190.02 mm,在最干燥条件下为207.46 mm;当达到临界雨量时应及时撤离杨柳坪至下游处30.85 hm~2范围内的所有人群。研究成果可为其他类似无资料地区及时预警山洪灾害、减少损失提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Affected by the complex geological conditions and the varying meteorological conditions, the small watersheds in the mountainous areas often suffer sudden floods after short-term heavy rainfall. In addition, the lack of basic hydrological data in mountainous areas makes it difficult to determine early warning indicators for floods. By constructing a distributed hydrological model, considering the influence of soil water content on the flood process under different rainstorm scenarios, we proposed a method for determining the critical rainfall for ungauged mountainous areas and applied it to Baisha River basin in Sichuan Province. The results showed that the soil water content had a significant effect on the flood process. Under the design rainstorm scenarios of 100 a(374.27 mm), 50 a(330.01 mm), 20 a(270.67 mm), 10 a(224.84 mm), the time to reach the alert flow under saturated soil conditions was 0.41, 0.35, 0.55, 0.63 h earlier than the most dry soil conditions respectively. The critical rainfall was 190.02 mm under soil saturation conditions and 207.46 mm under the driest conditions. When the critical rainfall level comes, all people in the range of 30.85 hm2 from Yangliuping to the downstream should evacuate in time. The study can be used for reference in other similar ungauged areas for timely warning of mountainous flood disasters and reducing losses.

       

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