地下洞室施工安全风险综合评价——基于ISM-ANP的灰色聚类分析

    Comprehensive evaluation on construction safety risk in underground cavern construction by grey clustering analysis based on ISM-ANP

    • 摘要: 由于地下洞室施工过程中的安全风险因素大多为动态且相互作用的,因此为减少地下洞室施工安全事故的发生,厘清施工安全风险因素之间的相互关联,对其安全风险水平进行评价至关重要。以金寨抽水蓄能电站为例,建立了基于ISM-ANP的灰色聚类分析地下洞室施工安全风险评价模型。首先,依据人-机-管-环建立地下洞室施工安全风险指标体系;然后,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析指标因素的相互影响关系,将其作为ANP模型建立的网络结构,求得各个指标因素的权重;最后,运用灰色系统理论引入ANP的权重计算结果求解综合关联度,得出该风险的评价结果。结果表明:该水电工程地下洞室施工安全风险大小介于中等风险和高风险之间,评价结果与现实情况基本吻合。

       

      Abstract: As the safety risk factors in the construction of underground caverns are mostly dynamic and interactive, therefore, in order to reduce the occurrence of safety accidents, clarifing the correlation between different risk factors of construction safety and evaluating its safety risk level are very important. In this paper, taking the Jinzhai Pumped Storage Power Stationan as a example, a safety risk evaluation model for underground caverns by grey clustering analysis based on ISM-ANP was established. Firstly, an underground cavern construction safety risk index system was established based on man-machine-management-environment. Then the interpretative structure model(ISM) was used to analyze the interaction relationship of the index factors, and it was used as the network structure established by the ANP model to obtain the weight of each index factor. Finally, the grey system theory was used to introduce the weight calculation results of the ANP to solve the comprehensive correlation degree, and the evaluation results of the risk were obtained. The research results showed that the safety risk of the underground tunnel construction of this hydropower project was between medium and high risk, closer to the medium risk state, indicating that the project had some hidden risks. The evaluation results were basically consistent with the actual situation.

       

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