水工程联合调度在2020年长江洪水防御中的作用
Role of joint operation of water conservancy projects in Changjiang River flood in 2020
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摘要: 2020年汛期长江发生流域性大洪水,干流先后出现5次编号洪水过程,长江上游寸滩站还原计算后的洪峰和洪量达到100 a一遇,超过1981年7月的洪水。长江水利委员会强化监测预报预警,统筹干支流、上下游、左右岸等防洪需求,充分发挥水库群拦洪削峰作用,科学有序实施了水库群、洲滩民垸、排涝泵站等水工程联合调度。通过对长江流域水工程调度体系、水库群防洪调度目标进行系统介绍,结合2020年水工程调度实践,分析了调度成效,并思考了调度实践中的现实问题。2020年汛期,通过实施水工程联合调度,降低长江干流川渝河段洪峰水位2.9~3.3 m,降低中下游干流宜昌至大通河段最高水位0.3~3.6 m,避免了宜昌至石首河段水位超保证水位,缩短中下游干流各站超警时间8~22 d。上述水工程联合调度措施的应用发挥了巨大的防洪减灾效益。经过2020长江流域性大洪水考验,深刻认识到在实时调度中使用水文气象预报可以更好地发挥水工程的防洪减灾等综合效益。提出今后要引进人工智能、机器学习、大数据等新技术,采用机理模型与数据驱动模型相结合,突破传统预报调度技术瓶颈,建设以全流域模拟为基础的长江流域控制性水利工程综合调度支持系统,提升预报调度能力和水平,为建设安澜长江提供支撑和保障。Abstract: In the flood season of 2020, five numbered flood process occurred in the main stream of Changjiang River. The return period of flood peak and flood volume of Cuntan station in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River after reduction calculation reached 100 years, more than the flood in July 1981. The Changjiang Water Recources Commission strengthened monitoring and early warning, planned the flood control needs of mainstream and tributaries, upstream and downstream, left and right banks as a whole, gave full play to the role of reservoir groups in flood control and peak shaving, and scientifically and orderly implemented joint operation of water conservancy projects such as reservoir groups, breach of polder embankments and drainage pumping stations. In this paper, the operation system of water conservancy projects in the Changjiang River Basin and the flood control operation objectives of reservoir groups were systematically introduced. Combined with the practice of water conservancy projects operation in 2020, the effectiveness was analyzed, and the practical problems in the operation were considered. Through the implementation of joint operation of water conservancy projects, the flood peak water level of Sichuan-Chongqing reach of the Changjiang River mainstream was reduced by 2.9 to 3.3 m, and the maximum water level of Yichang-Datong reach of the middle and lower reaches was reduced by 0.3 to 3.6 m, which avoided exceeding the guaranteed water level of Yichang-Shishou reach and shortened the warning time of each station of the middle and lower reaches by 8 to 22 days. The application of the above water conservancy projects operation measures brought a huge benefit for flood control and disaster reduction. After the flood test in Changjiang River Basin in 2020, it was deeply realized that on the basis of in-depth study, using hydrometeorological forecast in real-time water conservancy projects operation can better benefit in flood control and disaster reduction. It was proposed that new technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning and big data should be introduced in the future. Mechanism model and data-driven model should be combined to break through the bottleneck of traditional forecasting and operation technology. It is of great significance to build a comprehensive operation support system for controlled water conservancy projects in the Changjiang River Basin based on the whole basin simulation, improve the forecasting and operation ability, and provide support and guarantee for the construction of peace Yangtze River.
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