基于机器学习的葛洲坝水电站日均出力预测

    Prediction of daily power output of Gezhouba Hydropower Station during non-discarded water period based on machine learning

    • 摘要: 考虑三峡水库与葛洲坝水电站的紧密水力联系以及三峡水库出库流量与葛洲坝水电站入库流量的不平衡现象,提出了基于极端梯度提升(eXtreme Gradient Boosting, XGBoost)和自回归差分移动平均模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, ARIMA)这两种机器学习的葛洲坝水电站入库流量预测模型,以及基于贝叶斯岭回归的葛洲坝水电站日均出力预测模型,并将两种模型相结合进行葛洲坝水电站入库流量与日均出力预测。通过对2019年非弃水期的实验分析,结果表明:葛洲坝水电站入库流量预测模型优于传统的折算系数三日均值法,可降低流量预报误差;葛洲坝水电站日均出力预测模型具备较高的预测精度和较强的稳健性,可为葛洲坝水电站非弃水期日均出力计划编制提供参考。

       

      Abstract: It’s known that the Three Gorges Reservoir and Gezhouba Hydropower Station have close hydraulic connection. However, there is an inconsistency between the Three Gorges Reservoir’s outflow and Gezhouba Hydropower Station’s inflow by operational monitoring, which brings uncertainty to the inflow and power output prediction of Gezhouba Hydropower Station. In order to solve these problems, a prediction model was proposed for Gezhouba Hydropower Station’s inflow based on eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) during the non-discarded water period. What’s more, another prediction model was proposed for daily power output of Gezhouba Hydropower Station based on Bayesian Ridge Regression. And then, these two models were combined to predict the daily power output with unknown reservoir inflow. Through the experimental analysis during the non-discarded water period in 2019, the results showed that the proposed inflow prediction model performed better than traditional three-day average conversion coefficient method, greatly reducing the prediction error. Further more, the daily power output prediction model has high precision accuracy and strong noise robusticity, and it can be applied to making power-generation plan of Gezhouba Hydropower Station during non-discarded water period.

       

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