老挝南乌河流域山洪灾害防御模式研究

    Research on pathway of Lancang-Mekong water resources cooperation

    • 摘要: 老挝南乌河流域近80%的面积为高原高山地区,年降雨量丰富,流域内山洪灾害频发,由于当地山洪灾害防御体系不健全,山洪灾害常造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失,因此构建老挝南乌河流域山洪灾害防御模式十分必要。对老挝南乌河流域山洪灾害易发程度进行了分区并分析了其成因,采用FFPI、CN等图层算法计算得到南乌河流域山洪灾害危险度分布情况,基于水雨情监测设备、山洪灾害预警系统等非工程措施,提出了老挝南乌河流域山洪灾害防御模式。结果表明:南乌河流域山洪灾害中高易发区面积占流域总面积的54.3%,且流域北部的丰沙里省山洪易发情况最为严峻;山洪灾害危险度分布由西北向东南方向逐渐降低。研究成果可为老挝山洪灾害监测预警技术及防治体系构建提供科技支撑。

       

      Abstract: Water resources cooperation is a flagship of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation mechanism. The Lancang-Mekong Water Resources Cooperation (LMWRC) needs to clarify the cooperation boundary and action plan at different stages under different conditions. Taking the milestone of historical events in the LMWRC as the research object, based on constructing a ‘motivation-stage’ analysis framework of trans-boundary water cooperation, and combining with the needs of water resources cooperation from the Lancang-Mekong countries, we position the existing cooperation stage, and put forward the main content and realization path of future cooperation. The results show that the current LMWRC is still in the primary stage of coordination. In the future of this stage, the six Lancang-Mekong countries need to further expand cooperation in the fields of sharing management technology, sharing basin information, deepening capacity cooperation and coordinating conflicts of interest. In the collaboration stage, the six Lancang-Mekong countries can carry out cooperation in joint monitoring, joint assessment, watershed planning and joint reservoir operation. In the joint action stage, the six Lancang-Mekong countries can comprehensively improve the level of food, energy, environment, economy and political security of the whole basin through the joint construction and operation on controlled hydro-projects in the river.

       

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