大沽河入海径流演化特征及其影响因素研究

    Application of GPM IMERG satellite precipitation data in Guangxi

    • 摘要: 为揭示胶东半岛大沽河入海径流量演化特征及其主要驱动因素,采用Mann-Kendall法与改进Mann-Kendall法、累积距平法与滑动t检验法、Morlet复小波变换等研究了1956~2016年大沽河入海径流量及其变化趋势、突变特征与变化周期;采用降水-径流双累积曲线法,定量计算了气候变化与人类活动对大沽河入海径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明:大沽河入海径流量呈显著减少趋势,平均减少速率为0.158 5亿m3/a, 1976年发生了由多到少的突变,变化的主周期为21 a;导致径流量减少的主要影响因素为人类活动,大规模水资源开发活动改变了流域水资源转化过程。研究成果可为胶州湾水资源开发利用保护和生态环境评价提供参考。

       

      Abstract: In order to compare and evaluate the applicability of the latest IMERG V6 version of three satellite precipitation data (Early, Late and Final) in Guangxi region, based on the precipitation data of 18 ground stations, seven evaluation indicators were selected to conduct a comprehensive evaluation from the aspects of precipitation error, seasonal average precipitation, precipitation event detection ability and others. The results showed that: ① The correlation between the three satellite precipitation data and the station precipitation data all increased with the time scale, and the three satellite precipitation data showed a good detection ability on the monthly scale, but there was a time accumulation effect of RMSE in all three satellite precipitation data. ② The three satellite precipitation data had a certain ability to characterize the average precipitation in different seasons in Guangxi, but the difference was obvious, and the accuracy of three satellite precipitation data was relatively poor in winter. ③ The error of three satellite precipitation data was large in the areas with complex topographic and meteorological factors, and the precipitation detection ability was insufficient to some extent. ④ All three satellite precipitation data can detect precipitation with different intensities, and the ability to identify precipitation events was better in rainy season, but the accuracy of satellite precipitation detection decreased with the increase of precipitation intensity. In general, the accuracy of corrected delay IMERG-F was slightly better than that of uncorrected near real-time IMERG-E and IMERG-L, and it had a certain applicability in Guangxi, but the correction process also aggravated the overestimation of precipitation.

       

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