近60年青海省极端降水时空分布特征分析

    Temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitationin Qinghai Province in recent 60 years

    • 摘要: 深入认识极端降水时空变化特征,有助于从整体上评估区域异常降水带来的风险。基于青海省25个地面气象站点1961~2020年的逐日降水资料,选取10个极端降水指数,借助线性倾向估计、累积距平及GIS距离插值,分析了青海省极端降水时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)近60 a青海省降水量总体呈现上升趋势,以1.16 mm/a的速率增加;全年降水量在时间上分布极其不均匀,5~9月为雨季,10月至次年4月为干季;降水量在空间分布上呈现从北至南、从西至东逐渐增大的趋势。(2)青海省内的极端降水事件在时间和空间上变化较为明显,除降水强度、最长无降水日数和最长有降水日数随时间序列呈现下降趋势外,其余7个指数均表现为不同程度的上升趋势,其中总降水量、强降水量显著增加;空间上整体呈自东向西、自南向北递减的特征,极端事件在北部地区发生的频率高于南部地区。(3)近60 a青海省降水总量发生4次突变,1967,1988,2018年为降水典型异常偏高年份,1965年为降水典型异常偏低年份;中雨及大雨以上天数典型异常偏高年份偏多,2018年为最大值。青海省各站点降水倾向率变化范围在-4.6~27.8 mm/10 a之间,几乎所有站点降水呈增加趋势,仅河南站的年降水量在下降。研究成果可为青海省水资源利用和灾害风险管理提供借鉴。

       

      Abstract: It is important to understand temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation for the overall regional assessment of the risk of abnormal precipitation. Based on daily precipitation data of 25 meteorological stations in Qinghai Province during 1961 to 2020, 10 extreme precipitation indices were selected, and further temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation were analyzed by using linear trend estimation, cumulative anomaly and GIS. The results showed as follows: the precipitation in Qinghai Province has been increasing at a rate of 1.16 mm/a in the past 60 years. Precipitation throughout the year was extremely uneven in time distribution, with rainy season from May to September and dry season from October to April of the next year. In terms of spatial distribution, precipitation increased gradually from north to south and from west to east. The extreme precipitation events in Qinghai Province have changed significantly in time and space. Except that the precipitation intensity, the longest days without precipitation and the longest days with precipitation decreased with the time series, the other seven indices showed an increasing trend with different degrees, among which the total precipitation and heavy precipitation increased significantly. Extreme precipitation events decreased from east to west and from south to north, and they occured more frequently in the northern region than in the southern region. In recent 60 years, four abrupt changes in the total precipitation were observed. Typical years of abnormally high precipitation were 1967, 1988 and 2018, and typical year of abnormally low precipitation was 1965. The numbers of typically abnormal years with moderate rain and heavy rain were relatively too much, with the maximum value in 2018. The trend rates of precipitation at all stations in Qinghai Province ranged from -4.6 mm/10a to 27.8 mm/10a. The precipitations at almost all stations showed increasing trends, and only the annual precipitation of Henan Station decreased, indicating that precipitation in Qinghai Province gradually increased in the past 60 years. The research results can provide reference for water resources utilization and disaster risk management in Qinghai Province

       

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