长江上游流域降雨产流关系模型研究

    Study on relationship model of rainfall and runoff in upper reaches of Changjiang River Basin

    • 摘要: 为研究长江上游各流域分区的降雨产流规律特性,首先构建一套降雨洪水场次划分算法,基于该算法对长江上游主要流域分区的历史面雨量及流量数据进行雨洪场次划分,并计算每场洪水过程的降雨及洪水特征指标,建立历史洪水特征指标数据库;以降雨指标作为自变量,以洪量、洪峰流量两项重要的洪水指标作为因变量,构建偏最小二乘回归模型模拟降雨产流关系。结果表明:经训练后的模型在大多数流域表现出较高的模拟精度,该模型能够较好地表述流域降雨与径流间的关系。通过该模型对洪水指标进行预测能够为长江上游流域洪水预报提供科学参考。

       

      Abstract: To study the relationship between rainfall and runoff in the upper reaches of Changjiang River Basin, this paper firstly constructs a set of rainfall and flood field division algorithms. Based on this algorithm, the mean area rainfall data and runoff data of main subbasins of the upper reaches of Changjiang River were divided into independent flood events. Then characteristic indices of rainfall and flood of each flood event were calculated and stored into the index database. On this basis, taking two most important flood indices, flood volume and flood peak flow, as dependent variables and rainfall index as independent variables, the partial least squares regression model was established to simulate the relationship between rainfall and runoff. The results show that the trained model shows high simulation accuracy in most watersheds, and the model can well simulate the relationship between rainfall and runoff. Prediction of flood index through this model can provide scientific reference for the flood forecast in the upper reaches of Changjiang River Basin.

       

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