洞庭湖水质演变特征及驱动因子识别研究

    Characteristics of water quality evolution and identification of driving factors in Dongting Lake

    • 摘要: 为了全面掌握洞庭湖水生态变化状态,为改善其生态环境提供理论支撑,收集整理了1989~2018年洞庭湖11个监测断面的水质监测数据,采用单因子评价法和综合营养状态指数分别对洞庭湖水质演变特征、营养化状态进行研究,利用主成分分析法和多元回归分析法筛选识别社会经济和水文驱动因子,分阶段对驱动因子进行分析,并提出湖区水环境保护建议策略。结果表明:(1) 1989~2018年,洞庭湖水质下降明显,已处于轻度富营养化状态;从空间演变状况看,富营养状况分布为东洞庭湖>南洞庭湖>西洞庭湖;TN和TP是关键影响因素;经识别筛选,社会经济发展和水文变化是两大驱动因子。(2) 1989~2002年,洞庭湖水质总体呈明显下降趋势,社会经济驱动因子是关键原因;2003~2007年,洞庭湖水质变化相对平稳;2008~2018年,前期受社会经济发展和水文变化两个驱动因子共同作用,水质下降明显,后期由于水污染防治力度加大,水质呈现逐渐好转态势。(3)对照洞庭湖水质演变分析结果,为改善洞庭湖生态环境,建议重点要加强生活污染治理、防治工业点源污染、严控农业面源污染和加强洞庭湖水资源调控。

       

      Abstract: In order to comprehensively grasp the water ecological change state of Dongting Lake and provide theoretical support for improving its ecological environment, we collected and sorted out the water quality monitoring data of 11 monitoring sections in Dongting Lake from 1989 to 2018,and analyzed the water quality evolution characteristics and trophication status of Dongting Lake by single factor evaluation method and comprehensive nutritional status index.In addition, we screened and identified the socio-economic and hydrological driving factors, analyzed the driving factors by stages using principal component analysis method and multiple regression analysis method, and put forward several strategies for water environment protection in the lake area.The results showed that:(1) from 1989 to 2018,the water quality of Dongting Lake dropped significantly and was in a state of mild eutrophication; from the perspective of spatial evolution, the distribution of eutrophication was as follows: East Dongting Lake > South Dongting Lake > West Dongting Lake.TN and TP were the key influencing factors; through identification and screening, socio-economic development and hydrological status were the two driving factors.(2) From 1989 to 2002,the overall water quality in Dongting Lake showed a significant downward trend too, with socio-economic driving factors being the key factors; from 2003 to 2007,the water quality in Dongting Lake changed relatively steadily; from 2008 to 2018,the water quality decreased obviously in the early stage, which was affected by two driving factors of socio-economic development and hydrological change, however in the later stage, due to the increased efforts in water pollution prevention and control, the water quality was gradually improved.(3) According to the analysis results of water quality evolution in Dongting Lake, in order to improve it's ecological environment, it is suggested to strengthen the control of domestic pollution, prevent and control industrial point source pollution, strictly control agricultural non-point source pollution and strengthen the regulation of water resources in Dongting Lake.

       

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