基于BP神经网络的长江口深水航道回淤量预测

    Prediction of back-siltation volume in deep-water channel of Yangtze River Estuary based on BP neural network

    • 摘要: 长江口12.5 m深水航道在发挥巨大经济效益和社会效益的同时,航道回淤量大、时空分布高度集中的间题突出,每年需投入大量的维护疏浚力量。长江口深水航道维护一般以月为时段安排施工力量,但月度回淤强度大且时空变化明显,导致如何精准预测航道回淤量成为了一个重要技术难题。根据2016~2018年实测水文资料和航道回淤机制,筛选了影响航道回淤的主要影响因子,建立了多影响因子作用下的长江口深水航道回淤量BP神经网络高精度预测模型,比较并推荐了训练和预测网络的隐含层数及各层神经元数;选取2016~2018年长江口长序列的水文资料进行预测模型训练,并选取2019年资料对预测模型进行验证,证实了模型选取的影响因子及构建的预测模型的合理性,验证了模型具有较高的航道回淤量预测能力和空间分布预测精度,研究成果可为航道维护的科学管理和疏浚船舶的合理调度提供参考。

       

      Abstract: The 12.5 m deep-water channel in the Yangtze Estuary has brought great economic and social benefits into play.At the same time, the problems of large amount of channel back-siltation and its highly concentrated temporal and spatial distribution are prominent, and the pressure of channel water depth maintenance is large.A large amount of maintenance and dredging force needs to be invested every year.The monthly back-siltation intensity of the deep-water channel in the Yangtze Estuary is large and changes obviously with time and space.Therefore, how to accurately predict the channel back-siltation is an important technical problem.Based on the measured hydrological data from 2016 to 2018,this paper screened the main influencing factors of the channel back-siltation, and established a BP neural network high-precision prediction model of the deep-water channel back-siltation in the Yangtze River Estuary under the action of multiple influencing factors.The number of hidden layers and the number of neurons in each layer of the training and prediction network are compared and recommended.The hydrological data of the long series of the Yangtze River Estuary from 2016 to 2018 are selected for prediction model training, and the data of 2019 is selected to verify the prediction model, which verified that the model has a high prediction ability and spatial distribution prediction accuracy of channel back-siltation.The results will provide important support for the scientific management of channel maintenance and the rational scheduling of dredging ships.

       

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