Abstract:
In order to reasonably evaluate and improve the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi Province, the risk matrix method and policy scenario simulation method were coupled to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi Province during 2015~2019 from the dual perspectives of water resources quantity and water quality.Based on the above research, the improvement path of water resources carrying capacity in Jiangxi Province was discussed through scenario simulation from two aspects of water use efficiency and water use structure.The results showed that the water resources carrying pressure in Jiangxi Province was relatively high in 2019,7 out of 11 cities were in a critical or overloaded state of water resources, and it showed a spatial distribution characteristics of the highest water resources carrying pressure in the northwest, followed by the south and the lowest in the northeast.Jiangxi Province had a lower water use efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.If the water use efficiency of Jiangxi Province is improved to the low water use efficiency level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the number of cities in a critical or overloaded state will be reduced to 2.The proportion of agricultural water use in Jiangxi Province is the second highest in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.If the equilibrium of water use structure is improved and the proportion of agricultural water consumption is reduced, the number of cities in a critical or overload state can also be reduced to 2.The research results can provide a realization path for improving the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi Province, and has certain practical significance for promoting the spatial balance of water resources and the high-quality economic and social development in Jiangxi Province.