江西省水资源量质耦合承载力评价及提升对策

    Comprehensive evaluation on water resources quantity-quality coupling carrying capacity in Jiangxi Province and improvement strategies

    • 摘要: 为了合理评价和提升江西省水资源承载能力,耦合风险矩阵评价和政策情景模拟方法,从水资源数量和水资源质量双重角度,对江西省2015~2019年的水资源承载力进行评价,并从用水效率和用水结构两个方面进行情景模拟,探讨了江西省水资源承载力提升路径。研究结果表明:2019年江西省水资源承载压力较大,11个地市中有7个地市的水资源承载状况为临界状态或者超载状态,并呈现西北部最高、南部次之、东北部最低的空间分布特征;江西省用水效率在长江经济带中较低,若提高至长江经济带低用水效率水平,则可将水资源承载力处于临界状态或者超载状态的地市降为2个;江西省农业用水占比处于长江经济带第二高位,若提高用水结构均衡度,降低农业用水量占比,水资源承载力处于临界状态或者超载状态的地市也可降为2个。研究成果可为提高江西省水资源承载力提供一种实现路径,对促进江西省水资源空间均衡和区域经济社会高质量发展具有一定现实意义。

       

      Abstract: In order to reasonably evaluate and improve the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi Province, the risk matrix method and policy scenario simulation method were coupled to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi Province during 2015~2019 from the dual perspectives of water resources quantity and water quality.Based on the above research, the improvement path of water resources carrying capacity in Jiangxi Province was discussed through scenario simulation from two aspects of water use efficiency and water use structure.The results showed that the water resources carrying pressure in Jiangxi Province was relatively high in 2019,7 out of 11 cities were in a critical or overloaded state of water resources, and it showed a spatial distribution characteristics of the highest water resources carrying pressure in the northwest, followed by the south and the lowest in the northeast.Jiangxi Province had a lower water use efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.If the water use efficiency of Jiangxi Province is improved to the low water use efficiency level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the number of cities in a critical or overloaded state will be reduced to 2.The proportion of agricultural water use in Jiangxi Province is the second highest in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.If the equilibrium of water use structure is improved and the proportion of agricultural water consumption is reduced, the number of cities in a critical or overload state can also be reduced to 2.The research results can provide a realization path for improving the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi Province, and has certain practical significance for promoting the spatial balance of water resources and the high-quality economic and social development in Jiangxi Province.

       

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