基于XAJ-DCH模型的五强溪库区洪水预报研究

    Flood forecasting in Wuqiangxi Reservoir area based on XAJ-DCH model

    • 摘要: 由于沅水水系五强溪水库流域面积大,流量控制站少,且洪水进入库区后,洪水波的传播方式变化较大,因此五强溪水库近坝区的洪水预报难度大。为提高五强溪库区洪水预报精度,采用XAJ-DCH模型(Xin′anjiang Digital Channel Model)对近坝区2016~2020年间13场洪水进行模拟,模型河道汇流分别采用了非线性水库法和马斯京根法,根据两种汇流方法的特点制定了两种不同的洪水预报方案。模拟结果表明:XAJ-DCH模型中两种河道演算方法均表现良好且简单实用,13场洪水的确定性系数基本位于0.7以上。非线性水库方法相比于马斯京根法考虑了河段断面情况以及水力特性,能够体现洪水运动的时空变化,且只需要率定河道糙率,其他参数如河道坡降、河宽以及河段长均可根据数字高程模型进行估计;马斯京根法需要率定4个河道参数,但马斯京根法模拟结果相比于非线性水库方法稍好。研究成果可为科学有效开展库区洪水预报、提高预报精度提供参考。

       

      Abstract: It is difficult to forecast the flood in the near-dam area of Wuqiangxi Reservoir on Yuanshui River system due to the large watershed area, sparse flow stations, and the obvious variation of flood waves propagation after entering into the reservoir area.In order to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting in Wuqiangxi Reservoir area, a XAJ-DCH model was selected to simulate 13 flood events in the near-dam area of Wuqiangxi Reservoir during 2016~2020.Nonlinear Reservoir method and Muskingum method were selected for channel routing.The two different flood forecasting schemes were developed according to the characteristics of the two channel routing methods.The simulation results showed that the deterministic coefficients for the 13 flood events were generally above 0.7,indicating both methods in the XAJ-DCH model perform well and are practical.Compared with the Muskingum method, the Nonlinear Reservoir method can reflect the spatial and temporal variation of flood movement by considering the river section conditions as well as the hydraulic characteristics, and only river roughness needs to be calibrated while other parameters such as riverbed slope, river width and river section length can be estimated based on the Digital Elevation Model(DEM).The Muskingum method needs to calibrate four channel routing parameters, but its simulation result is slightly better than that of Nonlinear Reservoir method.The research results can provide reference for scientific and effective flood forecasting in the reservoir area and improving the forecasting accuracy.

       

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