基于陆气耦合模型系统的太湖流域洪水风险预测

    Flood risk forecast of Taihu Lake Basin based on coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system

    • 摘要: 为解决太湖流域高密度感潮河网地区水位预报精度难提高、洪水淹涝实时风险评估计算效率低等问题,破解复杂平原河网地区“四预”难题,构建了太湖流域陆气耦合模型系统,该系统包括太湖流域水文水动力学耦合模型与基于水文学法的洪水淹涝风险快速评估模型。在2021年“烟花”台风期间,以欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)数值模式网格、分区降雨预报为输入,分别应用基于河网多边形与汇流分布式动态单位线的水文水动力学模型预报太湖与河网代表站水位过程与超警超保区域,以及基于水文学法的洪水淹涝风险快速评估模型预测太湖流域洪水淹涝风险区域与强度。研究结果表明:太湖流域陆气耦合模型系统实现了降雨预报网格、分区与河网多边形的耦合,水文水动力模型解决了太湖流域降雨与径流在空间上的均化问题;与分区降雨数值预报相比,网格降雨数值预报预测的超警超保区域、洪水淹涝风险区域与实际情况更加吻合。该系统在“烟花”台风期间的预测预报服务直接支撑了流域洪水与区域涝水科学错峰调度,提升了流域与区域的防汛统一管理水平,有效缓解了下游地区的防洪压力,社会经济效益显著。

       

      Abstract: In order to improve water level forecasting accuracy in plain tidal river network area, and tackle the problem of low efficiency in real-time flood risk assessment and "Four-Pres"(forecast, early-warning, preview and response plan)difficulties in Taihu Lake Basin, a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modelling system of Taihu Lake Basin that is composed of the hydrology and hydrodynamic models and the rapid assessment model for flood inundation risk region based on hydrological method was established, which were driven by ECMWF grid and sub-region precipitation forecast during the typhoon In-Fa period in 2021.The risk region of water exceeding the alarming and guaranteed level for the representative stations over the Taihu Lake Basin was predicted by the hydrology and hydrodynamic model that is based on river network polygon, distributed dynamic unit hydrograph of flow conflux model.The flood inundation risk of the Taihu Lake Basin was predicted by the rapid assessment model for flood inundation risk region based on hydrological method.The results demonstrated that the coupling of precipitation forecast grid, partition and river network polygon were realized in the coupled atmospheric-hydrological modelling system.The problem of precipitation and runoff spatial homogenization was tackled by the hydrology and hydrodynamic model.Compared with the results given by partitioned precipitation forecast, the risk region of water exceeding the alarming and guaranteed level, flood inundation risk area given by grid precipitation forecast were consistent with observation.The coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system during the typhoon In-Fa period provided decision support for the scientific flood peak staggered regulation of the basin flood and sub-region waterlogging, which mitigated flood defense pressure of the downstream region and acquired remarkable social and economic benefits.

       

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