Abstract:
To evaluate the forecasting results of different numerical forecasting products for precipitation in Hanjiang River Basin, this paper uses numerical modes from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),the German Weather Service(GERMAN),the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP),the Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA),and the GRAPES modes from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)to analyze the distribution characteristics of surface precipitation in Hanjiang River Basin, and uses TS rating method to evaluate the forecasting results of various numerical modes on the surface precipitation in different sub-basins, seasons and intensities in the Hanjiang River Basin, then proposes an integrated application scheme for multi-model precipitation forecasting.The results show that among the various sub-basins of Hanjiang River Basin, the sub-basin below Huangzhuang Station has the most frequent and intensity of heavy precipitation, and the sub-basin between the Baihe Station and Danjiangkou Reservoir has the least frequent and intensity of heavy precipitation.Among these modes, the GERMAN mode had the best forecasting result of surface precipitation compared to others, followed by the ECMWF mode and the NCEP mode, while the JMA and GRAPES mode's results are relatively poor.Among the different seasons, the precipitation forecasting results of all models are the best in the main flood season, followed by the autumn flood season, while the dry season had the worst result.However, rate of false-alarm and false-negative in the autumn flood season are relatively low, and the rate of false-negative in the main flood season is relatively high.It is also found that using dynamic weighted method to integrate multi-model forecasting products can combine forecasting information from other modes, and the forecasting results usually are at the top among all modes.