基于土地利用/覆盖预测模型的昆仑山冰湖分布预测

    Distribution prediction and analysis of Kunlun Mountain glacier lakes based on land use/cover prediction model

    • 摘要: 开展冰湖时空分布预测研究,对预防冰湖溃决引发的灾害具有重要意义。基于GEE监督分类结果分析了2000~2020年昆仑山冰湖时空变化特征,探究了多准则CA-Markov、FLUS(Future Land Use Simulation)、PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model)3种土地利用/覆盖预测模型在冰湖预测中的适用性,得出最适宜昆仑山冰湖预测的模型,并基于此预测研究区未来冰湖变化趋势。结果表明:(1) 2020年,昆仑山地区冰湖数量及面积较2000年分别增长了39.25%和81.35%,冰湖空间分布呈现西多东少的特点。(2) 3种预测模型中,多准则CA-Markov模型在精度评价中表现最优,Kappa系数为0.86。(3)预测2025年冰湖面积及数量与2020年相比分别增加约6.54%、9.73%,2030年与2020年相比分别增加约14.59%、16.55%,未来昆仑山冰湖整体呈增长趋势,且东西部冰湖扩张差异将逐渐减小。

       

      Abstract: Carrying out researches on the prediction of the temporal and spatial distribution of glacial lakes is of great significance to preventing disasters caused by glacial lake outbursts.Based on the results of GEE supervised classification, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of Kunlun Mountain glacial lakes in 2000~2020,explored the applicability of three land use/cover prediction models: multi-criteria CA-Markov, FLUS(Future Land Use Simulation),PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model).Then we obtained the most suitable model for Kunlun Mountain glacial lake prediction, and predicted the future glacial lake change trend in the study area.The results showed that:(1) In 2020,the number and area of glacial lakes in the Kunlun Mountains increased by 39.25% and 81.35% respectively compared with that in 2000,and the glacial lakes distributed more in west and less in east.(2) Among the three prediction models, the multi-criteria CA-Markov Model performed the best in accuracy evaluation, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.86.(3) The area and number of glacial lakes in 2025 will increase by about 6.54% and 9.73% respectively compared with that in 2020.The area and number of glacial lakes in 2030 will increase by about 14.59% and 16.55% respectively compared with that in 2020,and the overall numbers of Kunlun Mountain glacial lakes in the future will still be in a augment trend, however the differences between the east and west areas will decrease.

       

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