考虑滞后性变化的滑坡位移预测模型研究

    Research on landslide displacement prediction model considering hysteresis change

    • 摘要: 在库水位反复升降条件下,滑坡的变形会滞后于库水位变动。滑坡变形的滞后性会随着时间发生改变,为解决滑坡变形滞后性随时间改变而导致的预测困难问题,基于溪洛渡库区雨林二组滑坡的长时间监测数据,通过相关性分析对滑坡变形滞后性随时间的变化规律展开了研究,并提出了一种考虑滑坡变形滞后性变化的位移预测方法。以白鹤滩库区王家山滑坡的变形情况对预测方法的普适性进行了验证。研究结果表明:滑坡变形的滞后性是随着时间逐渐显现的,由第2蓄水周期的1 d增加至第5周期的11 d,且库水位升高时滑坡变形的滞后性变化得更为明显。验证结果表明,预测方法的准确性和普适性均较好。综合分析认为该法可为库区其他涉水滑坡的变形预测提供借鉴。

       

      Abstract: In fluctuation of reservoir water level, the deformation of landslide will lag behind the water level variation, and this hysteresis of slope deformation changes over time.In order to solve the difficult problem of landslide deformation prediction caused by the varied landslide deformation hysteresis, we studied the change law of landslide deformation hysteresis with time based on the correlation analysis method and the long-term monitoring data of Yulinerzu landslide in Xiluodu Reservoir area.And a landslide displacement prediction method considering landslide deformation hysteresis change was proposed.The research results show that the hysteresis of landslide deformation gradually appears with time, the deformation hysteresis days increase from 1 day to 11 days during the second cycle to the fifth cycle, and the hysteresis of landslide deformation is more obvious when the reservoir water level rises.The universality of the prediction method is verified by the deformation of Wangjiashan landslide in Baihetan Reservoir area.The verification results show that the predictive methodology exhibits commendable accuracy and universality.The comprehensive analysis shows that the method can provide reference for the deformation prediction of other reservoir landslides.

       

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