松花江流域干旱突变特征及其遥相关因子分析

    Analysis on drought mutation characteristic and its teleconnection factors in Songhua River Basin

    • 摘要: 为了探究松花江流域干旱事件的时域突变特征与演变机制,基于松花江流域1960~2020年气象站点降水与气温数据,计算12个月尺度的标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI-12),并识别检验指数序列突变点。通过交叉小波变换、小波相干分析以及时滞相关系数等方法,分析了SPEI-12突变前后时空变化特征,并揭示了SPEI-12对遥相关因子的响应。结果表明:(1) SPEI-12突变节点约为1984年,流域空间上SPEI-12指数整体呈减小趋势,而在齐齐哈尔西北、呼伦贝尔东南、黑河市周边地区和吉林北部地区,这种减小趋势更为明显。(2) SPEI-12与太平洋年代际振荡、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动等大尺度气候因子存在共振周期。在突变后,太平洋年代际振荡和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象对SPEI-12共振相互作用更加显著。(3) SPEI-12与太平洋年代际振荡指数、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动指数之间的时滞相关特征在突变前后存在显著变化,突变后分别显示为滞后1~12个月显著正相关、滞后6~8个月显著正相关。因此,可以看出太平洋年代际振荡、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动是导致松花江流域干旱特征突变的重要因素之一。

       

      Abstract: In order to explore the time-domain mutation characteristics and evolutionary mechanisms of drought events in the Songhua River Basin, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index at the 12-month scale(SPEI-12) was calculated based on the precipitation and temperature data from meteorological stations in the Songhua River Basin during 1960~2020.The mutation of the SPEI-12 sequence was identified to explore the inter-annual mutation and underlying causes of drought events in the Songhua River Basin.By means of cross-wavelet transform, wavelet-coherence analysis, and lag-correlation analyses, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of SPEI-12 before and after the mutation and revealed the response of SPEI-12 index to the teleconnection factor.Results revealed that the mutation of SPEI-12 occurred around 1984,and SPEI-12 tended to decrease in the basin generally.The decreasing trend was more evident in the southeast of Hulun Buir City, the northwest of Qiqihar City, surrounding Heihe City, and the northern part of Jilin City than other regions.There was a resonance period between SPEI-12 and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and El Ni1o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),indicating that PDO and ENSO significantly interacted with SPEI-12 after the mutation.The lag-correlation characteristics between SPEI-12 and the two teleconnection indices significantly changed.After the mutation, the SPEI-12 and PDO showed a 1~12 months lag significant positively, and 6~8 months lag significant positively for ENSO.The analysis indicates that PDO and ENSO are critical to the mutation of drought characteristics in the Songhua River Basin.

       

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