长江流域水资源利用与航运发展协调性分析

    Coordinated analysis of water resource utilization and shipping development in Changjiang River Basin

    • 摘要: 为推进长江经济带区域协调发展,提升水资源高效利用与保障航运发展,通过构建长江全段流域水资源利用与航运发展指标体系,建立耦合协调模型,对2010~2020年常规情况长江流域水资源利用与航运发展的协调性进行了深入分析。并分析了枯水年(2011,2017年)与极端情况(2022年)下的长江流域水资源利用与航运发展的关系。结果表明:常规情况下,长江航运与水资源利用耦合协调度总体为0.6~0.7。从时间上看,现状水资源没有制约长江航运发展,二者关系总体稳定在初级协调水平,且呈现振荡上升趋势。从空间上看,长江各段航运发展-水资源利用协调水平存在一定的差异,中下游耦合协调度较高且较为稳定,上游地区协调度较低但呈现稳步持续上涨趋势。在非常规情况下(枯水年与极端情况),枯水年枯水期水资源利用会对航运发展局部航段产生一定的不利影响,在2022年“汛期反枯”的极端情况下也可能会对航运安全和航运效率产生影响,而通过分水方案统筹优化作用,水资源水平可以满足通航条件,保障航运发展。

       

      Abstract: To promote the coordinated development of the Changjiang River Economic Belt, improve water resource efficient utilization and ensure shipping development, we construct an indicator system for the water resource utilization and shipping development of the entire Changjiang River Basin and establish a coupling coordination model to analyze the coordination of water resource utilization and shipping development from 2010~2020 in the Changjaing River Basin.And we analyze the relationship between water resource utilization and shipping development in dry years(2011,2017) and extreme conditions(2022).The results show that the coupling coordination degree of shipping and water resource utilization in the Changjiang River Basin has been generally between 0.6 and 0.7 under conventional conditions.In terms of time, the current water resources have not constrained the shipping development of the Changjiang River, and the relationship between the two is generally stable at the primary coordination level, showing a trend of oscillating and rising.In terms of space, there are differences in the coordination level of shipping development and water resource utilization in different sections of the Changjiang River.The coupling coordination degree is higher and more stable in the middle and lower reaches, and lower but steadily increasing in the upper reaches.In unconventional situations(dry years and extreme conditions),the utilization of water resources during drought years may have a certain adverse effect on some sections of shipping, and extreme conditions like “anti-drought during the flood season” in 2022 may also affect shipping safety and efficiency.However, through the optimization of water resource allocation, the water resource level can meet the navigation conditions and guarantee the shipping development.

       

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