湄公河三角洲洪水特性及其演变规律分析

    Analysis on flood characteristics and evolution laws in Mekong Delta

    • 摘要: 湄公河三角洲洪涝问题一直是国际社会关注的热点,其洪水特性的不明晰成为制约该地区洪涝灾害治理的短板。基于湄公河三角洲代表站桔井站实测长系列水文资料,采用滑动t检验、Morlet小波变换分析及洪水丰平枯水年划分等方法研究其洪水特性及演变规律。研究结果表明:(1)湄公河三角洲主汛期平均起止时间为6月30日至11月2日,近年来主汛期历时易发生极端情况,尤以长汛期洪水更为显著;(2)湄公河三角洲峰现时间集中发生于8~9月,一场洪水历时平均约90 d;(3)湄公河三角洲桔井站峰高量大,最大90 d洪量与洪峰流量序列存在着35~37 a的周期变换规律;(4)桔井站洪峰-洪量组合变换多样,洪峰、洪量丰枯变化规律除少数年份外基本保持一致。研究成果可为认识湄公河三角洲复合水文规律提供重要科学依据。

       

      Abstract: The flood disaster of the Mekong Delta has always been a hot concern to the international community.The unclear flood characteristics have become a shortcoming restricting the flood control in the region.Based on long series of hydrological data measured at the representative station Kratie Station in the Mekong Delta, we evaluated the flood characteristics and evolution laws by using sliding t-test, Morlet wavelet analysis and flood year division.The results showed that:(1) the average starting and ending dates of the main flood season in the Mekong Delta is from June 30th to November 2nd.In recent years, the main flood season was prone to occur extreme conditions, especially the occurrence of long flood season.(2) The peak flow time is concentrated in August to September, and flood duration is about 90 days on average.(3) The peak flow of Kratie Station is high and the flood volume is large, and the maximum 90-day flood volume and peak flow sequence have a periodic transformation law of 35~37 a.(4) The combination of peak flow and flood volume in Kratie Station was varied, and the variation laws of peak flow and flood volume are basically consistent except for a few years.The research results can provide scientific basis for understanding the complex hydrological law of the Mekong Delta.

       

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