基于水资源刚性约束的城市节水潜力分析

    Urban water-saving potential analysis based on rigid constraint of water resources

    • 摘要: 为满足水资源刚性约束制度的要求,有效保障城市农业、生活及生产用水安全,以江苏省宿迁市为例开展不同规划年各来水条件情景下的节水潜力分析。用水总量控制管理是落实水资源刚性约束的重要标准,在节水潜力计算过程中,基于节水目标与强度设定了“基本方案”与“节水方案”,以区域用水总量控制指标为约束,构建了基于目标控制的节水潜力模型,从农业、第二第三产业、生活3个模块分析规划年宿迁市可节水量。结果表明:采用“节水方案”后,宿迁市基本能够满足水资源供需平衡,在P=95%的来水频率下,仅沭阳县处于轻度缺水状态;在P=50%来水频率下,发展至2025年及2030年,宿迁市全市节水潜力分别可达7.506 9亿m3和6.929 3亿m3;在宿迁市两区三县中,沭阳县可节水量最大,未来应合理规划,充分挖掘地区节水潜力。研究成果可为区域节水潜力发展提供参考。

       

      Abstract: In order to meet the requirements of the rigid constraint of water resources, and effectively ensure the safety of urban agriculture, domestic and production water, we analyzed the water-saving potential of Suqian City, Jiangsu Province under different planning years and water resources conditions.The total water consumption control management is an important standard for implementing the rigid constraints of water resources.In the process of calculating the water-saving potential, the "basic plan" and "water-saving plan" were set based on the water-saving goal and intensity.With the regional total water consumption control index as the constraint, a water-saving potential model based on target control was constructed, and the water-saving potential of Suqian City in the planning year was analyzed from three modules of agriculture, secondary and tertiary industries, and living use.Results showed that after adopting the "water-saving plan",Suqian City can basically met the balance of water supply and demand, and only Shuyang County is in a state of mild water shortage under the condition of 95% water frequency.The water-saving potential of Suqian City can reach 750.69 million m3 and 692.93 million m3 in 2025 and 2030 respectively, under the condition of 50% water frequency.Shuyang County has the greatest water-saving potential among the two districts and three counties in Suqian City.In the future, the total amount control and management of Suqian City should be planned reasonably to fully tap the water-saving potential.The research results can provide reference for the development of regional water-saving potential.

       

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