基于LSTM模型的时序InSAR地表形变预测

    Time-series InSAR ground deformation prediction based on LSTM model

    • 摘要: 为了解长江沿江区域的地表形变状况及发展趋势,维护长江防洪安全和河势稳定,利用2017年3月至2022年3月期间覆盖长江南京段沿江区域的61景Sentinel-1A影像,基于SBAS-InSAR技术获取了地面沉降监测结果,并基于LSTM长短期记忆神经网络模型对特征点未来变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明:(1)与水准监测结果相比,长江南京段沿江区域SBAS-InSAR监测结果具有一定的准确性;研究区域地面年均形变速率在-31~19 mm/a,并形成4个沉降漏斗。(2) LSTM模型对研究区域的形变预测值与SBAS-InSAR监测的期望值具有较高的一致性,两者最大绝对误差为3.28 mm;采用该方法对研究区域特征点的沉降趋势进行预测发现,未来2 a特征点总体表现为缓慢下沉并趋于稳定的趋势。研究成果可为相关部门制定沿江地区保护及规划方案提供技术参考。

       

      Abstract: In order to analyze the deformation status and development trend along the Changjiang River, and to maintain flood control safety and river regime stability, SBAS-InSAR technology was utilized to monitor ground deformation with 61 Sentinel-1A images covering the Changjiang River riparian area of Nanjing reach from March 2017 to March 2022.Additionally, the long short-term memory neural network model(LSTM) was used to predict the future trend of feature points.The results revealed that:(1) Compared with the leveling monitoring results, the accuracy of SBAS-InSAR was verified.The average annual ground deformation rate in the study area ranged from-31~19 mm/a, and four subsidence funnels were formed along the Changjiang River in Nanjing reach.(2) The deformation prediction values of LSTM model exhibited a high degree of consistency with the SBAS-InSAR results, with a maximum absolute error of 3.28 mm.Using LSTM to predict the subsidence trend of feature points in the study area, it is found that the overall trend in the next 2 years will involve slow subsidence and a tendency to stabilize.The results can provide technical reference for relevant departments formulating protection and planning plans for the Changjiang River riparian area.

       

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