堰塞湖风险处置研究现状与展望

    Research status and prospects on risk disposal of barrier lakes

    • 摘要: 科学认知堰塞湖基本特征、高效评估堰塞湖风险以及提升堰塞湖应急处置技术是缓和堰塞湖威胁和降低堰塞湖灾损的关键。从堰塞湖分布、成因、蓄水库容、生命周期以及堰塞湖灾害特点等方面系统分析了堰塞湖基本特征,从定性、定量以及灾害链角度系统总结了堰塞湖危险性评估方法,并结合堰塞湖溃决机理系统分析当前堰塞湖溃决应急监测困境、引流槽除险技术水平和疏通开挖机械设备现状。基于当前研究的局限性,凝炼堰塞湖应急处置研究未来应重点关注的5个问题:(1)堰塞体堆积形态分区机制;(2)强非恒定流输沙理论;(3)大尺度堰塞湖溃决模型试验;(4)堰塞湖应急处置专用机械设备研制;(5)堰塞湖溃决洪峰动态追踪。研究成果可为高风险堰塞湖风险评估、应急处置及区域防灾减灾规划提供有益参考。

       

      Abstract: Scientifically understanding essential feature, efficiently assessing risk level and upgrading emergency disposal level are the key to alleviating the threat and the lose of barrier lakes.The essential features of barrier lakes were introduced from the aspects of distribution, formation cause, reservoir capacity, life cycle and the disaster characteristics.Moreover, the risk assessment methods were systematically summarized from qualitative assessment, quantitative assessment and disaster chain perspectives.Based on the systematic analysis of outburst mechanism, this paper emphatically introduced the engineering problems about the emergency monitoring, the discharge spillway technology and the specialized excavation equipment about the barrier lakes.Combined with the limitations of the current research, five key issues that should be focused on in the study of emergency disposal of barrier lakes were prospected:(1) study on partitioned accumulation mechanism of landslide body;(2) theory on strong unsteady sand transport;(3) large scale physical model of barrier lakes;(4) research on special equipment of barrier lakes emergency disposal;(5) dynamic tracking on outburst flood peak.These results can provide reasonable references for risk assessment, emergency response, regional disaster prevention and reduction planning of high-risk barrier lakes.

       

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