城市建筑小区内涝风险快速识别与驱动因素分析

    Rapid identification and driving factor analysis of waterlogging risk in urban building communities

    • 摘要: 城市内涝风险快速识别及致涝因素初步分析是开展城市内涝治理的首要工作,传统的城市排水模型模拟方法需要高精度的基础数据支持和较长的计算周期,难以满足城市内涝快速识别需求。基于泸州市中心城区建筑小区2015~2022年实际内涝灾害数据,通过核密度估计和空间相关性分析对中心城区建筑小区内涝风险空间分布进行了快速识别,并采用Spearman相关分析和地理探测器法对内涝驱动因素进行了分析。结果表明:泸州市中心城区建筑小区内涝风险呈现从中心向四周逐渐降低的趋势,高风险区域主要位于城北片区、中心半岛老城片区和龙马潭老城片区;土壤地质、土地利用、社会因素和降雨因素是内涝风险的主要驱动因素,并表现为多因素协同发生的复杂形式。研究成果可为泸州市内涝风险精细化模拟分析提供基础,也可为西南丘陵城市建筑小区内涝风险快速识别及致涝因素初步分析提供方法支撑。

       

      Abstract: Rapid identification and driving factor analysis of urban waterlogging risk have been the primary requirements to implement urban waterlogging management.However, the traditional urban drainage modelling method requires high-resolution basic data support and a large modeling cost, which is difficult to meet the demand of urban waterlogging rapid identification.Based on the actual urban waterlogging disaster data of building communities in Luzhou City from 2015 to 2022,the spatial distribution of waterlogging risk in building communities was rapidly identified using kernel density estimation and spatial correlation analysis.Spearman correlation analysis and geodetector approach were used to investigate the waterlogging risk driving factors.The results show that the waterlogging risk of building communities in Luzhou City tends to decrease gradually from the center to the perimeter, and the high-risk areas are mainly located in the Chengbei region, Zhongxinbandao region and Longmatan region.The primary driving factors of the waterlogging risk are soil texture, land use, social factors, and rainfall factors, and they exhibit complex forms of multifactorial synergies.The results can provide a basis for high-resolution modeling of the waterlogging risk in Luzhou City, and the methods can also provide methodological support for a rapid identification of the waterlogging risk and preliminary analysis on factors contributing to waterlogging in urban building communities in hilly cities of southwest China.

       

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