Abstract:
Traditional long-medium term operation models based on ten-day/month scales are difficult to describe the operational risk induced by the fluctuations of wind and PV output, and cannot effectively guide the long-term operation of hydro-wind-PV complementary systems.To this end, a method for deriving long-medium term hydro-wind-PV complementary systems operating rules while considering short-term operational characteristics was proposed.First, a short-term operation model was established to estimate possible power curtailment, abandoned water, and lost load in the hydro-wind-PV complementary operation.Then, based on the long series of short-term operation samples, the response relationships between hydropower output and power curtailment, abandoned water, lost load were extracted.Finally, these response relationships were nested in implicit stochastic optimization dispatching model to extract operating rules.A clean energy base in the upper Yellow River basin was selected as a case study.The results indicated that compared with the simplified operation strategy, the energy increased by 6.5%,and the lost load rate decreased by 3.71% through implicit stochastic optimization.Nesting the short-term operational risks in long-term hydro-wind-PV complementary dispatching model can reduce power curtailment and lost load risk, thus effectively guiding the long-term scheduling operation of complementary systems.