Abstract:
To reveal the precipitation anomaly over the Changjiang River Basin under carbon neutrality period, we defined the carbon neutrality period in CMIP6 models, analyzed the average and extreme precipitation differences between the carbon neutrality period and the reference period for climate change amplitude, and gave its possible causes from the atmospheric circulation anomalies.The results showed that:(1) The carbon neutrality year is 2062 under the SSP-2.6 scenario, which is consistent with the carbon neutrality policy of China.(2) After the spatial downscaling and bias revision, the CMIP6 models can well simulate the precipitation in the Changjiang River Basin.(3) During the carbon neutrality period, the average precipitation over the Changjiang River Basin increases significantly with larger anomalies in the north(upper reaches) than in the south(lower and middle reaches),and the order in seasons is spring>summer>autumn>winter.Especially, the anomalies over the Minjing River, Tuojiang River, and Jialing River are the maximum center in all seasons, which need special attention in the future.Continuous drought days decrease over the middle reaches of Changjiang River Basin, extreme heavy rain days significantly increase by 2.4~4.0 days over the north, and extreme heavy rain intensity enhances over the upper and lower reaches.(4) The easterly and southeasterly anomalies over south and northwest of the Bohai Sea anticyclone in winter, spring, and autumn bring warm and moist flow from the central and western Pacific to the Changjiang River Basin, which favors the precipitation during the carbon neutrality.Meanwhile, the southwesterly anomaly, conveying warm and moist flow from the Bay of Bengal, contributes to the positive precipitation anomaly in summer.These results can provide a basis for relevant departments in the Changjiang River Basin to develop climate change response strategies for the future carbon neutrality period.