基于SPEI-RRV和MC的云贵高原干旱状态识别
Identification of drought status in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau based on SPEI-RRV and Markov Chain
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摘要: 全球变暖趋势明显,致使区域性干湿变化特征的不确定性加剧。通过计算标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),结合可靠性-回弹性-脆弱性指标(reliability-resilience-vulnerability, RRV)和马尔科夫链估计(Markov Chains, MC)统计2000~2022年云贵高原区域的干旱风险等级、干旱发生频率、涉及面积占比和平均持续时间,并采用Mann-Kendall检验法检验其趋势显著性,识别云贵高原的干旱事件,定量刻画干旱状态空间特征。结果表明:SPEI-RRV能够有效识别云贵高原干旱事件,该指数能较为精确地评价区域干旱状态;云贵高原78%的地区干旱状态有微弱的逐年加重趋势,有超过35%的概率会遭受从轻度到特级不同程度的干旱,东部丘陵区特旱的稳态概率为25%,该区域发生极端干旱概率较高。研究成果可为云贵高原干旱监测和干旱风险评估提供参考。Abstract: The continual global warming trend has contributed to the uncertainty of regional dry and wet change characteristics.In this study,a standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau was calculated,and combined with reliability-resilience-vulnerability (RRV) and Markov Chains (MC),the drought risk level,drought frequency,area proportion and average duration of the region were calculated.Then Mann-Kendall test was employed to test their significance,identify drought events and characterize the spatial characteristics of drought states quantitatively in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau during the period from 2000 to 2022.The results showed that SPEI-RRV was reliable in identifying drought events and evaluating regional drought states accurately in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.78% of the regions have a weak increasing trend of drought year by year.The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau has more than 35% probability of suffering different degrees of drought from light to extra severe,especially the steady state probability of extra severe drought in the eastern hilly region is 25%,and the probability of extreme drought is very high.The research findings can provide references for drought monitoring and drought risk assessment in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.
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