Abstract: Climate change significantly affects runoff in river basins and the power generation capacity of cascade hydropower stations.Using historical and future climate scenario data, the WACM hydrological model, and a cascade hydropower generation model, we predicted the changes in inflow and outflow as well as the power generation capacity of five cascade hydropower stations in the lower reaches of Lancang River.The results indicates that:(1) The future temperature in the Lancang River Basin will rise to some extent, but precipitation trends vary among the climate models GFDL-CM3,GISS-E2-R-CC,and IPSL-CM5A-MR,showing increases of8%～24%,decreases of15%～45%,and minor variability(-4%～7%),respectively.(2) Upstream inflow is projected to increase significantly(16.15%) under the GFDL-CM3model, decrease substantially(-30.67%) under the GISS-E2-R-CC model, and change minimally(-2.01%) under the IPSL-CM5A-MR model.(3) The annual average power generation of the cascade hydropower stations is significantly influenced by upstream inflow, and guaranteed output is more sensitive to reductions in inflow.When the annual average flow decreases by30.67%,the guaranteed output decreases by approximately80%.These findings can provide references for water resource management and cascade hydropower station scheduling in the Lancang River Basin in response to climate variation.