Abstract:
Scientific prediction on future water resources ecological footprint and carrying capacity in Hebei Province is of great significance for the regional water resources sustainable utilization.A system dynamics(SD) model of water resource utilization was constructed based on the SD method and ecological footprint model in Hebei Province.We designed four scenarios, status quo continuation scenario ES1,economic development scenario ES2,water conservation scenario ES3,and coordinated development scenario ES4,to evaluate and predict the water resources ecological footprint in the present(2006~2021) and future(2022~2050).The results indicate that:(1) for the current years, the per capita water resources ecological footprint and carrying capacity show a slowly decreasing and a fluctuating trend respectively, and the water resources are in ecological deficit, which indicates that water resources utilization is in an unsafe state.However, the water resources are being used more and more efficiently.(2) In the future, the per capita water resources ecological footprint and ecological stress index of all the scenarios show a growing trend, and the water resources are all in ecological deficit with more severe indicators year by year; the water resources ecological footprint of 104RMB GDP all show a decreasing trend, which indicates the water resources utilization efficiency will continue to increase in the future.However, the water resources utilization pressure is still too large.(3) ES4 is the most suitable scenario, which can ensure the future socio-economic development of Hebei Province at an appropriate rate and reduce the ecological pressure on water resources.In the process of future water resource utilization in Hebei Province, it is necessary to take positive action in many ways to ensure the sustainable utilization and development of water resources.