川渝高温热浪与暴雨旱涝演变特征及适应策略研究

    Characteristics of heatwave and heavy rainfall in Sichuan-Chongqing Region and corresponding adaptive strategy

    • 摘要: 为加深对川渝地区多灾种综合影响的理解,提升灾害综合风险防范能力,基于长时序观测数据,利用线性拟合、Pettitt检验、小波时频分解等方法,分析了1961~2022年川渝热浪与暴雨的时空演变特征,并针对耦合影响区提出适应性策略。结果表明:(1)近60 a来川渝总体高温热浪趋强趋长趋频,且不同时长高温热浪的区域差异性特征显著。川南经济区、川东北经济区至重庆市9 d及以上高温热浪的发生频次显著增多,成都平原经济区西部3~8 d高温热浪频次显著增多,自1990年代初期以来,盆西变化尤为明显。(2)川渝暴雨灾害变化也存在显著的区域差异。成都平原经济区西部、川南经济区暴雨日数显著减少、强度降低,川东北经济区至重庆市的暴雨日数增加、强度增强。(3)对高温干旱复合与旱涝急转事件的分析表明,盆东至重庆市旱涝急转自1980年代中期以来显著增加,盆南高温干旱复合事件自2000年代初以来显著增加。(4)成都平原经济区应着重关注高温热浪频发对超大城市脆弱人群及能源供给的冲击;川南经济区需关注持续性高温热浪叠加干旱给工业、农业带来的不利影响;川东北经济区在充分考虑高温热浪和暴雨灾害单独影响的同时,也应进一步综合考虑区域内旱涝急转给农业及重点项目带来的不利影响。

       

      Abstract: To deepen the understanding of the comprehensive impact of multiple disasters in Sichuan-Chongqing Region, and to improve the risk prevention capabilities for disasters, we analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of heatwave(HW) and heavy rainfall in Sichuan-Chongqing Region from1961to2022based on long-term observation data, using methods such as linear fitting, Pettitt test, and wavelet time-frequency decomposition.Adaptive strategies are also proposed for the coupled impacted areas.The results showed that:(1) Over the past60years, the HWs in Sichuan-Chongqing Region have become stronger, longer, and more frequent, with significant regional differences.The frequency of HWs lasting9days or more has exhibited a significant rise in the Southern Sichuan Economic Zone and the Northeast Sichuan Economic Zone to Chongqing City, while the frequency of HWs lasting3~8days has significantly increased in western Chengdu Plain Economic Zone.Since the early1990s, changes in the western Sichuan Basin have been particularly evident.(2) There are also significant regional differences in the changes of heavy rainfall.It is shown that a decrease in both the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall has occurred in the western Chengdu Plain Economic Zone as well as the Southern Sichuan Economic Zone, while an increase has been observed in the eastern basin to Chongqing City.(3) Furthermore, there has been a notable rise in the occurrence of sudden shifts between drought and flood since the mid-1980s in the eastern basin to Chongqing City, and the combination of HWs and droughts has significantly increased since the early2000s in southern Sichuan Basin.(4) It is recommended that the Chengdu Plain Economic Zone directs its attention towards the potential consequences of frequent HWs on vulnerable population and energy supply within the mega-city.The Southern Sichuan Economic Zone should prioritize assessing the cumulative impact of persistent HWs and droughts on both the industrial and agricultural sectors.Similarly, the Northeast Sichuan Economic Zone should thoroughly evaluate the compounded effects of droughts, floods, and abrupt transitions between the two on agriculture and major programs.

       

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