Abstract: Appropriate evaluation indicators and methods are crucial for ensuring the scientific and objective assessment of water resource carrying capacity.This study aims to identify key factors affecting the evaluation of water resource carrying capacity and to explore efficient evaluation methods.Based on indicator data from various regions in China in2020,an evaluation index system for water resource carrying capacity was constructed from three dimensions: economy, population, and environment.An obstacle degree model was employed to qualitatively and quantitatively screen key indicators.Comparative studies were conducted on four single evaluation methods(Entropy weighting-TOPSIS,entropy weighting-linear weighting, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and factor analysis method) and three combined evaluation methods(fuzzy Borda method, drift degree combined evaluation method, and variance maximization combined evaluation method).Based on the research results, a measurement analysis of the evolution trend of China′s water resource carrying capacity from2004to2022was conducted.The results indicate:(1) The key factor affecting China′s water resource carrying capacity is the per capita water resource possession(obstacle degree index up to0.556),followed by the proportion of ecological environment water use(obstacle degree index0.181) and the rural domestic sewage treatment rate(obstacle degree index0.057) among other indicators.(2) Combined evaluation methods outperform single evaluation methods in terms of stability and trend, but their calculation process is more complex.Among the combined evaluation methods, the variance maximization combined evaluation method performs the best, with an average error of only1.56%;among the single evaluation methods, the entropy weighting-linear weighting method performs the best, with an average error of4.30%.(3) From2004to2022,China′s water resource carrying capacity index increased from0.115to0.867,mainly due to the key role of the government in promoting water conservation and ecological environment improvement.The research outcomes can provide a scientific basis for regional water resource management.