Abstract: In order to effectively address the urban water supply and demand conflicts caused by rapid urbanization and industrialization, it is crucial to accurately assess the water resource carrying capacity(WRCC) and to explore rational utilization models of water resource.Comprehensively considering the dynamic relationships between the water resource, society, the economy and the environment in a comprehensive manner, this study proposed a WRCC simulation-evaluation model, which was constituted by the coupling of the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method with system dynamics.Taking Chengdu City, a megacity in Southwest China, as the study area, we employed scenario analysis to simulate and analyze the development trend of WRCC of Chengdu City from 2019 to 2035.The findings demonstrated that the existing water resource is unable to sustain the current development model of Chengdu City.The spatial pressure of WRCC is the highest in the central and eastern regions, followed by the south-west, and lowest in the north, with a significant radiation effect centred on the urban core.A narrow focus on economic development, industrial structure adjustment, or water resource policy adjustment is an inadequate approach to comprehensively enhancing regional WRCC.Instead, an integrated development strategy is the optimal choice.To enhance the WRCC,it is essential to reinforce the synergistic effects of water resource policy adjustments and industrial structure optimization, particularly in areas with high population density.This study can provide a theoretical foundation and methodological support to mitigate urban water supply and demand conflicts and ensure the sustainable development of the supercity and megacity.