极端暴雨条件下城市内涝模拟研究进展与展望

    Progress and prospects of urban waterlogging simulation under extreme rainstorm conditions

    • 摘要: 在全球气候变化和城市化的背景下,极端暴雨事件频发,城市内涝问题日益严峻,威胁城市安全。为减轻内涝威胁和提高极端暴雨事件的应急管理水平,借助模拟手段分析极端暴雨条件下城市内涝过程已成为重要研究趋势。在极端暴雨基本特征分析的基础上,识别了城市内涝积水的主要影响因素;系统总结了极端暴雨条件下城市内涝模拟的两大主流方法,即机理驱动模型和数据驱动模型,前者物理过程明确,但计算用时长,后者计算效率满足快速模拟预测的要求,但缺乏物理机理。在此基础上,从城市内涝模拟结果的多指标动态分析、模拟精度和效率的提升、城市尺度模型与流域尺度模型的深度融合、机理模型和数值天气预报的动态结合、机理驱动模拟和数据驱动模拟的实时耦合5个方面展望了极端暴雨条件下城市内涝模拟的未来发展趋势。研究成果可为极端暴雨条件下城市内涝过程识别与管理提供借鉴。

       

      Abstract: In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization, extreme rainstorm events have become more frequent, and urban waterlogging issues are increasingly severe, threatening urban safety.To mitigate the risks of waterlogging and improve emergency management during extreme rainstorm events, analyzing urban waterlogging processes under such conditions using simulation methods has become an important research trend.Based on an analysis of the basic characteristics of extreme rainstorms, the key factors influencing urban waterlogging were identified.A systematic review on the two main simulation methods for urban waterlogging under extreme rainstorm conditions was conducted: mechanism-driven models and data-driven models.The former explicitly represent physical processes but require longer computation times, while the latter meet the demands of fast simulation and forecasting but lack physical mechanisms.Based on this, future development trends for urban waterlogging simulations under extreme rainstorm conditions were discussed from five perspectives: multi-index dynamic analysis of simulation results, improving simulation accuracy and efficiency, deep integration of city-scale and watershed-scale models, dynamic integration of mechanism-driven models with numerical weather forecasting, and real-time coupling of mechanism-driven and data-driven models.The research findings can provide valuable references for identifying and managing urban waterlogging processes under extreme rainstorm conditions.

       

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