基于SPGA-XGBoost的洪水预报误差智能校正方法

    Intelligent correction method for flood forecast error based on SPGA-XGBoost

    • 摘要: 误差实时校正是提升洪水预报精度的重要手段。针对传统误差校正模型的校正精度及稳定性欠佳等问题,将机器学习技术引入误差序列映射函数训练过程,提出一种基于SPGA-XGBoost的洪水预报误差智能校正方法。首先以传统水文预报模型的预测值和实测值构建误差序列并作为误差校正模型的输入,引入极限梯度提升算法XGBoost构建误差校正模型, 以充分挖掘误差序列非线性关系,然后提出融合粒子群优化算法和模拟退火算法的混合遗传优化算法SPGA对XGBoost模型超参数进行寻优,从而更好地挖掘误差序列的时序特征以提升误差校正的精度。长江螺山站的实例应用结果表明:用SPGA-XGBoost模型校正相较未校正前RMSE, MAE 分别降低0.440 m和0.356 m,NSE提升0.016,优于STGCN模型、GBDT模型、KNN等方法。SPGA-XGBoost模型能充分挖掘误差序列的相关关系,提高水位预报精度,具有较好的适用性和应用前景。

       

      Abstract: Real-time error correction serves as a crucial means to enhance the accuracy of flood forecast.To address the problem of poor accuracy and stability of traditional error correction models, we incorporate machine learning technology into the training process of the error sequence mapping function and propose an intelligent error correction method based on SPGA-XGBoost.This method initially constructs an error sequence based on the predicted and measured values of the traditional hydrological forecasting model as the input of the error correction model, and constructs a error correction model to fully explore the nonlinear relationship of the error sequence by the deep learning algorithm XGBoost.Moreover, a hybrid genetic optimization algorithm SPGA which combines particle swarm optimization algorithm and simulated annealing algorithm, is proposed to optimize the hyperparameters of XGBoost model, thereby it can better mine the timing characteristics of error sequences and improve the accuracy of error correction.The experimental results of Luoshan Station on Changjiang River indicate that the RMSE and MAE of the model are decreased by 0.440 m and 0.356 m respectively, and the NSE is improved by 0.016 compared with the uncorrected model, which is superior to the STGCN, GBDT and KNN.The SPGA-XGBoost model can fully discover the correlations within the error sequence and improve the accuracy of water level forecast, and has good applicability and application prospect.

       

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