上海市防汛安全指数评价体系研究

    Evaluation system on flood control safety index in Shanghai City

    • 摘要: 上海作为全国重点防洪城市之一,具有洪涝灾害高风险和城市高度脆弱的双重特征,为进一步提升超大城市防汛安全韧性,需要科学全面系统地评估全市及各区防汛安全保障水平。以保障城市防汛安全韧性为核心,从高水平防御和高效能治理两个维度建立了两大类6个维度16个指标组成的防汛安全指数评价体系,制定了指标评价方法和指数评价标准,并应用于评估上海市及其16个行政区的防汛安全保障能力。结果表明:上海市防汛安全指数从2015年度的72.25分提升至2023年度的81.56分,处于较安全水平,但存在一定的区域差异,总体上中心城区防汛安全保障能力高于郊区,工程能力指数弱于管理能力指数,主要制约能力指数为排水工程指数。防汛安全指数可用于指导防汛管理部门以制约能力指数为导向,通过加大防汛基础设施投入、消除各类防汛安全隐患等手段补齐短板,从而引领全市防汛安全保障能力提质增效,亦可为其他城市开展相关防汛安全水平评价提供参考。

       

      Abstract: As one of the key flood control cities in China, Shanghai City has the dual characteristics of high risk of flood disasters and high urban vulnerability.To enhance the flood control safety resilience, it is necessary to evaluate the flood control safety capabilities of Shanghai City.With ensuring the resilience of urban flood control safety as a core, a flood control safety index (FSI) evaluation system consisting of two categories, six dimensions, and 16 indicators was established from the dimensions of high-level defense and efficient governance.The index evaluation method and FSI evaluation standards were formulated and applied to evaluate the flood control safety guarantee capability of Shanghai City and its 16 administrative districts.The results show that the FSI in Shanghai City has increased from 72.25 points in 2015 to 81.56 points in 2023, which is at a relatively safe level but with certain regional differences.Overall, the FSI in the central urban area is higher than that in the suburbs, and the engineering capacity index is weaker than the management capacity index.The main constraint capacity index is the drainage engineering index.Guided by the constraint capacity index, FSI can be used to guide flood control management departments to fill the gaps by increasing investment in flood control infrastructure and eliminating various flood control safety hazards.This can lead to the improvement of the city′s flood control capacity and provide reference for other cities in China to carry out relevant evaluations.

       

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