重大输水工程交易中锦标激励策略分析——基于多方博弈视角

    Analysis on incentive strategies in major water conveyance project transactions: from a multi-party game perspective

    • 摘要: 重大输水工程通常呈线状分布,在建设实施过程中多个承包方团队平行施工。针对重大输水工程交易中平行施工多承包方的机会主义行为,构建了考虑心理倾向的业主与多承包方的演化博弈模型,运用演化博弈理论探讨了多方主体的稳定策略动态演化过程和策略选择。研究结果表明:业主、承包方1和承包方2的三方动态博弈并不会固定地收敛于某一个稳定策略集合,其在各自不同概率范围内的不同行为取向均会造成不同收益结果;多承包方的行为选择主要受锦标激励物质奖励程度、公平偏好效用和机会主义行为的投机收益3个因素的影响;实现系统最优博弈均衡的关键在于使多承包方“努力”行为的收益大于“投机”行为的收益,根据影响承包方行为的关键因素设计锦标激励方案尤为重要。

       

      Abstract: Major water diversion projects usually exhibit linear distribution, with multiple contractor teams executing parallel construction during implementation.To address the opportunistic behaviors of multiple parallel contractors in such projects, an evolutionary game model incorporating psychological tendencies was developed, involving the project owner and multiple contractors.Using evolutionary game theory, the dynamic evolution processes and strategy selections of multi-party stakeholders were examined.The results indicate that the tripartite dynamic game among the owner, Contractor 1, and Contractor 2 does not uniformly converge to a single stable strategy set.Instead, varying behavioral orientations within distinct probability ranges lead to different payoff outcomes.The contractors′ behavioral choices are primarily influenced by three factors: the magnitude of material rewards in tournament incentives, the utility of fairness preferences, and the speculative gains from opportunistic behaviors.The key to achieving the system′s optimal game equilibrium lies in ensuring that the benefits of "effortful" behaviors outweigh those of "opportunistic" behaviors for contractors.Thus, designing tournament incentive schemes based on these critical factors is particularly important.

       

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