基于CVaR和改进TOPSIS的水火风电调度多属性决策

    Multi-attribute decision making for scheduling of hydro-thermal-wind power systems based on CVaR and improved TOPSIS

    • 摘要: 风电出力不确定性对电力系统稳定运行造成较大影响。应用条件风险价值模型计算风电出力不确定性引起的条件风险,建立基于风电风险、发电成本和污染排放的水火风电联合调度三目标优化模型,通过多目标遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅲ)求得该模型Pareto最优解集,并进一步对该调度方案集提出改进TOPSIS多属性决策方法。运行结果表明:①改进后的TOPSIS方法有效解决了原方法的逆序问题和多属性决策问题,尤其在风电出力不确定性和弃风风险较大的情况下,优化方案显著提高了系统的整体效益。②对调度方案集进行安全、经济和环保不同侧重下的排序择优,相比传统TOPSIS法,改进TOPSIS方法决策结果虽然运行成本仅上升0.07%,但运行风险、污染物排放量分别降低了24%和2.25%,验证了该方法解决水火风电联合调度多属性决策问题的合理性和有效性。

       

      Abstract: The uncertainty of wind power output significantly impacts the stable operation of power systems.To address this, the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) model was applied to quantify the conditional risk caused by wind power output uncertainty.A three-objective optimization model for the joint dispatching of hydro-thermal-wind power systems was established, considering wind power risk, generation cost, and pollution emissions.The Pareto optimal solution set for this model was obtained using the multi-objective genetic algorithm (NSGA-Ⅲ).Furthermore, an improved TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) multi-attribute decision-making method was proposed to evaluate the dispatching schemes.The operational results demonstrated that: the improved TOPSIS method effectively resolves the rank reversal problem and enhances multi-attribute decision-making.Particularly under conditions of high wind power uncertainty and significant wind abandoning risk, the optimized scheme substantially improves the overall system benefit.The dispatching scheme set is ranked and optimized based on varying priorities of safety, economy, and environmental protection.Compared with the traditional TOPSIS method, the improved TOPSIS approach increases operational costs by only 0.07%, while reducing operational risk by 24% and carbon emissions by 2.25%, confirming its rationality and effectiveness in solving multi-attribute decision-making problems in hydro-thermal-wind power joint dispatching.

       

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