基于多策略改进合作搜索算法的径流混合预报模型

    Hybrid runoff forecasting model based on multi-strategy improved cooperation search algorithm

    • 摘要: 针对传统径流预测方法存在的预测精度低及泛化能力差等问题,提出了集成逐次变分模态分解、多策略改进合作搜索算法及误差时空综合修正的径流混合预报模型。首先,利用逐次变分模态分解将径流时间序列分解为若干相对独立、互不影响的子序列;其次,以最小二乘支持向量机模型为预报单元,分别通过正弦初始化、动态交流及游走变异等策略对合作搜索算法进行综合改进,提升了参数全局搜索能力和收敛稳定性;最后,对各模型预测结果进行叠加集成,运用误差时空修正策略进一步降低预测误差,保障结果精度和可靠性。在福建省池潭水库的工程应用表明:相较于LSTM、ELM、SVR、LSSVR等传统模拟,混合预报模型在径流预测结果中具有更高的RMSEMAECCNSE指标值,预见期1~4 d的NSE指标分别为0.986, 0.982, 0.976, 0.967,展现出更高的精度和稳定性。各模块有效性检验结果表明,所提模型能精确捕捉非线性径流数据关系,降低预测偏差,可为变化条件下高精度径流预测提供参考。

       

      Abstract: To address the limitations of low prediction accuracy and poor generalization ability in traditional runoff forecasting methods, this study proposes a hybrid runoff forecasting model integrating Successive Variational Mode Decomposition (SVMD), multi-strategy Improving Cooperation Search Algorithm (ICSA), and spatiotemporal error integrated correction.Firstly, the method decomposes the runoff time series into relatively independent subsequences using SVMD.Secondly, each subsequence is then forecast using Least Squares Support Vector Regression (LSSVR), with its parameters optimized by a CSA enhanced via sinusoidal initialization, dynamic communication, and random walk mutation strategies, significantly improving global search capability and convergence stability.Finally, the initial forecasts are summed and further refined by spatiotemporal error integrated correction to further reduce residual errors and ensure reliability.Validated in Chitan Reservoir, Fujian Province, China, the model demonstrably outperformed traditional methods (LSTM, ELM, SVR, LSSVR), it achieved higher RMSE, MAE, CC and NSE values values.The NSE values for the forecast period of 1~4 days are 0.986, 0.982, 0.976 and 0.967 respectively, showing higher accuracy and stability.Validity tests confirmed its capability to accurately capture complex nonlinear runoff relationships and reduce prediction bias, providing a valuable solution for high-precision runoff forecasting under changing conditions.

       

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