汉江上游流域多时间尺度降水时空演变特征分析

    Analysis of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of precipitation at multiple time scales in upper reaches of Hanjiang River Basin

    • 摘要: 汉江上游流域是中国重要的水源地和农业生产区,研究该流域的降水时空变化特征对区域水资源利用、经济持续发展及生态文明建设至关重要。基于汉江上游流域及周边气象站点1961~2019年降水数据,采用ANUSPLIN插值法将站点数据拓展至1 km空间数据,进一步利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、滑动t检验、Sen′s坡度法、集合经验模态分解法(EEMD)及云模型分析法揭示该流域降水时空演变特征。结果表明:① 1961~2019年汉江上游流域年际、春季和秋季降水呈下降趋势,趋势分别为-7.9,-5.5 mm/10 a和-6.5 mm/10 a,夏季和冬季呈湿润化趋势,降水增加趋势分别为3.6 mm/10 a和0.6 mm/10 a。②流域年际降水在1985年发生突变,整体呈明显下降趋势,趋向干旱化,夏、冬季分别在1977年和2007年发生突变,降水呈现倒“U”形,表现出“湿润—干旱”的态势,而春、秋季降水无明显突变点,但降水呈现“U”形,表现为“干旱—湿润”的变化态势。③流域不同研究时间尺度降水周期以年际周期为主,年际和冬季降水的年代际贡献率相对较高,春秋两季降水的趋势项贡献率较高。④流域降水空间分布异质性显著,春夏秋三季较为丰沛,冬季降水稀少,空间分布呈由南向北递减态势;流域空间上92.8%,97.9%和100.0%的地区年际、春季和秋季降水表现为下降趋势,78.0%和67.8%的地区夏季和冬季降水表现为上升趋势。⑤流域冬季和春季降水发生集中且降水趋势较为稳定,波动较小,夏季降水发生更为离散,集中性较差,秋季的超熵值最大,说明秋季降水趋势最不稳定。研究成果可为流域水资源管理、气候适应性政策制定及生态文明建设提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: The upper reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin are vital water sources and agricultural hub in China, making them essential for studying the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation.Understanding these patterns is crucial for regional water resource management, sustainable economic development, and ecological civilization construction.This study utilizes precipitation data from meteorological stations in the upper Hanjiang River Basin and its surrounding areas from 1961 to 2019.Australian National University Spline (ANUSPLIN) interpolation method is applied to expand the station data to a 1 km spatial resolution.The spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation is then analyzed using several methods, including the Mann-Kendall trend test, sliding t-test, Sen′s slope estimator, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), and cloud model analysis.The results indicated that: ① From 1961 to 2019, the annual, spring, and autumn precipitation in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin exhibited a decreasing trend, with reduction rates of -7.9, -5.5 mm/10 a, and -6.5 mm/10 a, respectively.In contrast, summer and winter precipitation showed an increasing trend, with rates of 3.6 mm/10 a and 0.6 mm/10 a, respectively.② A significant shift in annual precipitation occurred in 1985, marking a general decline and a tendency towards aridification.Summer and winter precipitation underwent shifts in 1977 and 2007, respectively, exhibiting a reversed U-shaped pattern characteristic of "wet to dry" condition.In contrast, spring and autumn precipitation did not display significant shifts but followed a U-shaped pattern, reflecting "dry to wet" variability.③ Precipitation at research different time scales in the basin predominantly followed an interannual cycle.Interannual and winter precipitation showed relatively high decadal contribution rates, while spring and autumn precipitation were more strongly influenced by trend components.④ Precipitation distribution within the basin exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with higher precipitation in spring, summer, and autumn, and lower precipitation in winter.The precipitation showed a decreasing trend from south to north.Spatially, 92.8%, 97.9%, and 100.0% of the regions showed a downward trend for annual, spring, and autumn precipitation, respectively.In contrast, 78.0% and 67.8% of the regions showed an upward trend for summer and winter precipitation respectively.⑤ Winter and spring precipitation demonstrated concentrated and stable trends with small fluctuations, whereas summer precipitation was more dispersed and showed lower concentration.Autumn precipitation had the highest super entropy value, indicating the greatest instability in precipitation trends during this season.This study can provide an important scientific basis for basin water resources management, climate adaptation policy formulation and ecological civilization construction.

       

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