基于EMD-SVM的东北寒温带黑土区蒸发预测模型研究

    Research on evaporation prediction model based on EMD-SVM in cold temperate black soil region of Northeast China

    • 摘要: 中国东北寒温带黑土地是重要的产粮区,而水资源对粮食安全保障至关重要。蒸散发是明晰水循环过程与掌握水资源变化规律的关键环节之一,提升蒸发量预测能力,对掌握东北地区水资源变化过程,保障农业发展和粮食安全至关重要。以东北黑龙江西部为典型研究区,针对东北寒温带黑土区的蒸发预测问题,提出了一种基于经验模态分解(EMD)与支持向量机(SVM)相结合的预测模型(EMD-SVM),并与传统SVM和EMD-ARIMA模型性能进行了比较。研究结果表明:EMD-SVM模型在训练期和验证期的预测性能均优于传统SVM和EMD-ARIMA模型,尤其是在低蒸发量序列的拟合效果上表现突出。验证期内,EMD-SVM模型的纳什效率系数(NSE)和相关系数(R)分别达到0.88和0.95,平均绝对误差(MAE)相较SVM模型降低了32.7%。研究成果可为东北寒温带黑土区蒸发预测能力提升提供新的方法参考和借鉴。

       

      Abstract: The black soil region in the cold temperate zone of Northeast China is a vital grain production area in the country, and water resources are crucial for ensuring food security.Evaporation is a key process in understanding the water cycle, so enhancing evaporation prediction capabilities is essential for understanding water resource changes in Northeast China and ensuring agricultural development and food security.This study focuses on the western region of Heilongjiang Province in Northeast China as a representative area and proposes a prediction model combining Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), referred to as the EMD-SVM model, to address the evaporation prediction challenges in the cold temperate black soil region of Northeast China.The performance of the proposed model was compared with traditional SVM and EMD-ARIMA models.The results show that the EMD-SVM model outperforms the traditional SVM and EMD-ARIMA models in both the training and validation periods, particularly in fitting low evaporation sequences.During the validation period, the EMD-SVM model achieved a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.88 and a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.95, while the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) was reduced by 32.7% compared to the SVM model.This study provides a novel methodological reference for improving evaporation prediction capabilities in the cold temperate black soil region of Northeast China.

       

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