考虑河道流量智能演算的梯级水库防洪优化调度

    Flood control optimal operation of cascade reservoirs coupled with intelligent river flow algorithms

    • 摘要: 梯级水库防洪调度中,入库流量精准计算与模型高效求解是提升防洪效能的关键。考虑到梯级水库间流量传播的非线性特征,且下游水库入库流量计算受河道流量演算精度影响显著,针对复杂水力联系下梯级水库防洪优化问题,提出一种考虑河道流量智能演算的防洪调度方法。首先,融合BP神经网络与LSTM多模态优势,构建Stacking集成学习框架河道流量智能演算模型,并通过多元非线性回归实现异构模型预测结果的协同优化; 其次,利用改进灰狼优化算法(IGWO)进行防洪调度模型的优化求解,通过引入Sine混沌映射、非线性收敛因子和动态搜索空间策略,提升模型求解效率。以金沙江下游溪洛渡—向家坝梯级及三峡水库为研究对象,解析了区间来水对梯级水库防洪调度的影响。结果表明: 智能演算模型在不同流量区间的趋势拟合及洪峰演算精度均优于传统方法; 基于耦合河道流量智能演算的水库防洪优化调度模型制定的调度方案,可使三峡水库最高调洪水位降低0.60 m,最大下泄流量减少3%,峰现时间延迟12 h。研究成果可为水库群防洪优化调度提供参考。

       

      Abstract: In the flood control operation of cascade reservoirs, accurate inflow calculation and efficient model solving are critical to enhancing flood control performance.Given that upstream river flow routing exerts a significant influence on the inflow process, this study addresses the flood control optimization problem of cascade reservoirs under complex hydraulic connections by proposing a flood control operation method that incorporates intelligent river flow routing.Firstly, an intelligent river flow routing model based on the Stacking ensemble learning framework was developed by integrating the multimodal advantages of BP neural networks and LSTM, which can achieve collaborative optimization of prediction results from heterogeneous models through multivariate nonlinear regression.Secondly, the Improved Grey Wolf Optimizer (IGWO) was employed for the optimal solution of the flood control operation model.By introducing Sine chaotic mapping, a nonlinear convergence factor, and a dynamic search space strategy, the efficiency of model solving was enhanced.Taking the Xiluodu—Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs in the lower reaches of Jinsha River and the Three Gorges Reservoir as study cases, the impact of interval inflows on the flood control operation of cascade reservoirs was analyzed.The results demonstrate that the intelligent routing model outperforms traditional methods in low/high flow intervals, flood peak prediction, and trend fitting.The flood control operation scheme derived from the coupled model reduces the maximum flood regulating water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir by 0.60 m, decreases the maximum discharge by 3%, and delays the peak occurrence time by 12 hours.These findings provide valuable insights for the flood control optimal operation of reservoir groups.

       

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