库区阶跃型滑坡预警方法研究

    Research on early warning methods for step-type landslides in reservoir areas

    • 摘要: 库区滑坡中,阶跃型滑坡具有明显的突发性和阶段性变形特征,但目前对其缺乏系统的识别方法与针对性预警机制,难以实现有效防控。针对上述问题,以大渡河猴子岩水电站林邦滑坡为例,利用K均值聚类分析叠加局部极值法提取监测曲线中的阶跃变形区间,系统分析2018~2022年间有效库水位变动量Heffect、改进切线角(α)以及变形速率(v)与该滑坡7次阶跃变形的响应机制,提出一种库区阶跃型滑坡的预警方法。结果表明:林邦滑坡3项预警指标Heffectαv的预警阈值分别为4.69 m, 45°, 3.87 mm/d;阶跃变形的定量识别条件为出现稳定拐点,Heffect<1.42 m,v<3.87 mm/d;3个指标同时达到阈值时发出预警,满足阶跃变形识别条件则认定为阶跃变形并解除预警。研究成果可为此类型滑坡灾害的预警工作提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Step-type landslides in reservoir areas exhibit distinct characteristics of sudden occurrence and staged deformation. However, the current lack of systematic identification methods and targeted early-warning mechanisms hinders its effective prevention and control. To address this challenge, this study investigates the Linbang landslide at the Houziyan Hydropower Station on the Dadu River. We employ K-means clustering analysis combined with a local extremum method to identify step-type deformation intervals within the monitoring data. Specifically, we systematically analyze the response mechanisms between seven recorded step-type deformation events (occurred between 2018 and 2022) and three key indicators: effective reservoir water level fluctuation (Heffect), modified tangential angle (α), and deformation rate (v). Based on this analysis, we propose an early-warning method for step-type landslides in reservoir areas. The results indicate that the warning threshold values for the three indicators (Heffect, α, v) of the Linbang landslide are 4.69 m, 45°, and 3.87 mm/d, respectively. The quantitative identification criteria for step-like deformation are the appearance of a stable inflection point combined with Heffect < 1.42 m and v < 3.87 mm/d. A warning is issued when all three indicators simultaneously reach their thresholds; if the step-type deformation identification criteria are satisfied, the event is confirmed as step-type deformation and the alert is lifted. The research findings can provide a reference for early warning work concerning step-type landslide hazard.

       

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