基于SNA-SD的高支模施工安全风险演化规律研究

    Research on evolution law of safety risks during high formwork construction based on SNA-SD model

    • 摘要: 为科学管控高支模施工安全风险,降低高支模施工事故发生概率,首先基于高支模事故调查报告,采用社会网络分析法(SNA)筛选风险因素,从人员、施工技术、管理、机械设备及材料、环境5个维度构建高支模施工安全风险指标体系;其次建立系统动力学(SD)模型,并利用序关系分析法(G1)计算各风险指标权重;最后以山西浑源抽水蓄能电站主副厂房高支模施工为研究背景,进行风险演化规律研究。结果表明:施工人员违章作业的绝对中心度和相对中心度最高,更容易和其他风险因素组合导致事故的发生;随着安全投入和风险管控措施的实施,高支模施工安全风险开始呈现出先快速上升,到达峰值后快速下降,再次上升到达次高值后下降,最终趋于平缓的变化趋势,与现场实际情况基本相符,验证了模型的有效性;施工中需加强对管理和环境两方面的防控,两者对各个风险初值的敏感性较高。

       

      Abstract: In order to scientifically control the safety risks during high formwork construction and reduce the likelihood of accidents, firstly, based on the investigation report of high formwork accidents, social network analysis (SNA) was used to screen risk factors, and a safety risk index system for high formwork construction was constructed from five dimensions: personnel, construction technology, management, mechanical equipment and materials, and environment.Secondly, through establishing a system dynamics (SD) model, the weight of each risk index was calculated by using the order relation analysis method (G1).Finally, taking the high formwork construction of the main and auxiliary powerhouse in Hunyuan Pumped Storage Power Station (in Shanxi Province) as an engineering example, the safety risks evolution law was studied.The results showed that the absolute centrality and relative centrality of construction workers′ illegal operations were the highest, and they were more likely to combine with other risk factors to cause accidents.With the implementation of safety investment and risk control measures, the safety risk of high formwork construction began to show a trend of rapid rise first, rapid decline after reaching the peak, rise again to the second highest and then decline, and finally tended to be gentle, which was basically consistent with the actual situation on site, and verified the model effectiveness.In addition, it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of management and environment during the construction, both of which are highly sensitive to the initial value of each safety risk.

       

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