滑坡异常监测数据识别与预警方法优化研究

    Optimization of landslide anomaly monitoring data detection and early warning methods

    • 摘要: 监测预警是滑坡减灾防灾的关键技术手段,然而现阶段普遍存在由于监测数据与阈值原因导致误报率较高的问题。通过总结影响滑坡预警精度的主要因素,建立典型异常监测曲线样本库;基于完整性、规范性和准确性3个维度,建立一套数据质量评价体系;采用机器学习方法实时识别异常监测数据,提出预警阈值动态调整机制,进而建立一套滑坡预警等级修正智能预警方法。应用该方法体系对阿坝藏族羌族自治州2021~2024年的滑坡预警事件进行对比分析。结果表明:通过对异常数据的识别与处理,进而修正预警等级,可以有效地降低由于异常数据导致的误报,GNSS误报率从2021年的42.58%降至2024年的11.72%,裂缝计预警误报率从2021年的42.58%降至2024年的19.32%,2021~2024年整体有效预警率分别提升了19.10%,17.63%,14.78%和16.90%。得益于机器学习对位移类监测数据特征提取的优势,对GNSS和裂缝计异常监测数据识别的准确率为97.43%~98.93%,验证了典型异常曲线样本库构建与动态阈值算法的有效性。研究成果可为类似滑坡监测预警工作提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Monitoring and early warning represent a critical technological approach for landslide hazard mitigation and disaster prevention.However, high false alarm rates remain widespread due to issues with monitoring data and threshold settings.By summarizing the main factors affecting the accuracy of landslide warnings, this study established a sample database of typical anomalous monitoring curves, employed machine learning methods to identify abnormal monitoring data in real time, and introduced a dynamic adjustment mechanism for warning thresholds.An intelligent warning methodology that incorporates landslide warning level corrections was developed and applied in the Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture.A comparative analysis on warning events from 2021 to 2024 was conducted.The results demonstrated that identifying anomalous data and accordingly adjusting warning levels can effectively reduce false alarms caused by such data.The false alarm rate for GNSS monitoring decreased from 42.58% in 2021 to 11.72% in 2024, while that for crack meters dropped from 42.58% to 19.32% during the same period.The overall effective warning rate improved by 16.90%, 14.79%, 17.64%, and 19.10% from 2021 to 2024, respectively.Owing to strong performance of machine learning in feature extraction from displacement monitoring data, the accuracy of identifying anomalous GNSS and crack meter data reached between 97.43% and 98.93%, validating the effectiveness of both the typical anomaly curve database and the dynamic threshold algorithm.The research outcomes can provide valuable references for similar landslide monitoring and early warning initiatives.

       

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